Betting tips / Andrew Atherley / 01 December 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Although Swansea haven't proved conclusively that they have what it takes to stay in the Premier League to Andrew Atherley, they have made a good start.

Brendan Rodgers' team are 13th in the table as we enter the fifth month of the season, which is a much better position than most punters expected.

At the start of the campaign the Swans were relegation favourites at [1.67] but now they are [3.15] and three teams - Wigan, Blackburn and Bolton - are shorter in the betting.

Yet, while they have performed above expectations, Swansea's position may still slightly under-rate them. Their first three away games were as tough as they come - at Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal - and in their first 13 games they have played five of the big six (four of them away).

Swansea have been far from disgraced against the elite, securing a goalless draw at Liverpool and losing only 1-0 against Manchester United and Arsenal, but the results hardly matter because most promoted teams would write off those games as a dead loss. Any points collected against the big six are, to use a cliché, a bonus.

What will make the difference in the end for Swansea is their performance against the non-elite teams, and so far that has been promising. Their record against teams outside the big six is three wins, four draws and just one loss out of eight, for a points average of 1.63.

If they maintain that average, the Swans will stay up even if they take no more points against the big-six.

Possession has been a key factor for the Welsh outfit. They have kept the ball as well as a big-six side, which is remarkable for a team of their status, and that has helped them be competitive against the best opposition. Even in their heaviest defeat, 4-0 at Manchester City in their opening game, they had almost 60 per cent of the possession and did not concede until just before the hour mark.

The superior firepower of the best teams has been too much for Swansea most of the time, but it has been a different story against the rest of the division. In games in that category, Swansea's high percentage of possession has allowed the opposition few scoring chances, resulting in five clean sheets out of eight for Rodgers' team.

The weak point for Rodgers is the attack, with Swansea having failed to score in seven of their 13 games. However, the combination of Swansea's high possession percentage and low scoring rate is an opportunity for punters, with goals likely to be in short supply on both sides.

Swansea are one of only six Premier League teams that have had a majority of games with under 2.5 goals this season, they lead the league for goalless draws (four) and in nine of their 13 games at least one team has failed to score.

Saturday's visit to Blackburn may not be the best opportunity to go for a low score, as it is notable that most of Swansea's higher-scoring games have been against teams from the extremes of the table. But it is a good chance to back Rodgers' solid team on the Asian handicap, a bet that has the safety net of a half-win if the match ends in a draw.

Pick of the Stats
Newcastle v Chelsea
Newcastle have lost only one out of seven at home to big-six teams under Alan Pardew

Everton v Stoke
Everton have won five out of six against bottom-half teams - only three teams have a better win rate in that category

Recommended Bets
Swansea off +0&+0.5 on Asian handicap v Blackburn at [2.06]
Everton to beat Stoke at [1.8]