Betting tips / Ralph Ellis / 17 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Ralph Ellis would never question the difference an in-form striker makes to a team's fortunes.

've lost count down the years of the number of strikers I've talked to in an effort to fathom what causes a player to go from one month when he can't miss, to the next when the proverbial cow's backside becomes elusive to his banjo.

And the truth seems to be that none of them really know.

There are factors. Playing regularly, feeling confident, feeling fit, making good runs, getting good service. But there are times even then when all those things come together but the goals still don't flow.

I remember once playing golf with Dean Saunders who had been in a spell, at the time, of about a dozen games without a goal and had hit the woodwork umpteen times in the previous three games. At one hole he hit his drive a bit low and the ball cannoned into a wooden stake about 20 yards in front of the tee, and rebounded to five feet behind him. "Blimey," he said. "I can't believe I've even hit the post here."

I suspect Fernando Torres is going through those same emotions. It's now 16 weeks since the last time Chelsea's £50m centre forward scored in the Premier League, and however well he's playing at the moment nothing is happening for him. It was summed up by a spectacular overhead kick against Sunderland that cannoned off the bar and hit Frank Lampard before going in for the game's only goal. You sense that it will happen for him soon though, and when it does Chelsea will get on a roll with him. They have shortened to [1.46] for a top four finish.

It would be nice for Liverpool to think that Andy Carroll is equally close to finding his form. There's no sign of it. With Luis Suarez suspended for eight games, Kenny Dalglish needed his £35m signing to come to the fore. But he hasn't even been playing well enough to have started Saturday's 0-0 draw with Stoke and when he did come on with half an hour to go, the best he could offer was a few wrestling matches which might, or might not, have deserved to win a penalty. Liverpool are [1.24] to get in the top six but currently there's more value in laying that.

It was Wayne Rooney who struggled for goals last season, and then suffered a brief bad spell this term. He didn't get any of Manchester United's three against Bolton, but there are signs that Sir Alex Ferguson has found his best front partner in Danny Welbeck. The youngster who has had injury issues this year seems to make the right runs for Rooney who looks decent value to finish in the top four Premier League scorers if you can get something matched close to the current lay price of [1.98].

One man who hasn't had any problems hitting the target is Robin Van Persie. He's now clear Golden Boot leader on 18 for the season, yet curiously still odds against at [2.24] to stay there. He was on target after just four minutes at Swansea yesterday, but Arsenal's problems remain at the other end of the field and their defending in a 3-2 defeat was awful.

Swansea's centre forward Danny Graham is a good example of how confidence breeds goals. Bought from Watford, he's now got seven in his last 14 since Brendan Rodgers convinced him he was good enough to play in the top flight. And the same sort of process has happened for Steve Morison at Norwich. His winner in the 2-1 success at West Brom was the eighth of a Premier League season in which the former paper shredder has established the record of scoring at every level from Conference South to international. Their performance means that if you'd taken my early season tip to lay Queen's Park Rangers when they were [1.51] favourites to be top promoted team, you could easily turn the market green.

New Hoops manager Mark Hughes is searching for a striker after the 1-0 defeat at Newcastle. At least he has the money to find one - unlike Blackburn who can't even afford to pick Jason Roberts as the logical replacement for the suspended Yakubu, because if they do, they will have to give him another year's contract. Blackburn's 3-1 win with ten men over Fulham meant they became [1.92] for relegation, and there's real value in backing that. Don't forget that last year's bottom at Christmas club West Ham were 17th as late as the middle of March but still finished 20th. They didn't have a reliable goal scorer either.