Excellent away form to continue
Betting tips 
/ Dave Farrar / 19 November 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market
Lazio are enjoying a wonderful start to the season, and it's their away form which has been the basis for their surprise title challenge.
Dave Farrar has little doubt that Lazio will take full advantage of the pressure that comes with Napoli's upcoming match against Manchester City in the Champions League next week when it comes up against them in this weekend's A-Series.
This was the fixture which produced the game of the last Serie A season, a rollercoaster 4-3 win for Napoli, in which they came from 2-0 and 3-2 down. I'm not sure that Saturday night will produce a game which is quite as good, but I'm convinced that it will be entertaining, and will provide us with two excellent betting opportunities.
Lazio are enjoying a wonderful start to the season, and it's their away form which has been the basis for their surprise title challenge. They have now collected 13 points from the 15 available away from Rome, and even though Napoli are traditionally good at the fearsome San Paolo, I fancy Lazio to cause a minor shock and come away with a win on Saturday night.
Napoli are [2.24] for the victory, but the fact that they face the game of their season so far on Tuesday night against Manchester City means they simply must be swerved and are a perfectly reasonable lay at the price. Walter Mazzari says that he will play his full strength side against Lazio and that may well be true, but I still find it hard to believe that Napoli's players will have their minds fully focused on the challenge posed by Edy Reja's team. The City game is being called the "thirty million Euro match" and the Naples papers have been full of its significance for weeks. The match against Lazio won't quite be an afterthought, but the need to win it could melt away in the minds of the players.
The one downside for those of us who are committed to supporting Lazio is that Miroslav Klose is an injury doubt, and they'd obviously miss his goal threat, but he may well feature, and if he doesn't, Lazio have more quality in forward areas. They also have a coach in Reja who is still stung by his sacking from the Napoli job three years ago and will be keen to prove a point.
Napoli's record going into their Champions League matches this season has been terrible.
Yes, they beat a woeful Cesena side before their trip to City on Matchday One, but since then, they have drawn at home against Fiorentina, lost at home to Parma, and then lost away to Catania. You can take in the significance of those statistics and then back the best away team in Italy, the joint League leaders, to further reinforce them on Saturday night. And you can do so at [3.8]. It makes Lazio a must bet. Given the way that these teams both play, I wouldn't put you off a bet on Over 2.5 Goals at around the [2.3] mark either, but the prospect of some Reja revenge will be carrying my cash.
Recommendation: Back Lazio to beat Napoli @ [4.2]
The Lazio game will involve my most significant investment of the week, but a Sunday game may provide us with another chance to make a profit. Lecce did this column a favour a couple of weeks ago by winning at woeful Cesena, and while I don't expect them to pull off a shock victory at the Olimpico, I think that they're capable of keeping things tighter than the market would have us believe.
Roma have been playing pretty well, but their inability to make the most of the pressure that they create is incredibly frustrating. They have scored thirteen times, but it ought to have been 23. Lecce have adopted a more cautious style over the last couple of weeks and it served them well in Cesena, so there's no reason for that to change on Sunday. Under 2.5 Goals is currently the outsider on Betfair, at around [2.28], and that's wrong. Roma should be strong favourites to win the match, but not by anything approaching a cricket score.
Recommendation Under 2.5 Goals in Roma v Lecce @ [2.28]
