Betting tips / Dave Farrar / 22 October 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Last weekend's matches gave Serie A a bad name but the fixture list means things are unlikely to change dramatically this week. No matter, says Dave Farrar, let's bet on some low-scoring matches once again.

Bologna v Lazio

After a dismal weekend, one of the worst that I can remember in terms of entertainment, Serie A is in need of a boost. Unfortunately the nature of this week's fixtures means that it's unlikely to get it. Many people will justifiably argue that football isn't just about scoring goals, but five 0-0 draws on a Sunday afternoon can only damage the reputation of a league, and yet don't expect a flood of goals this matchday to make up for it.

I still think that the league is set up beautifully, and that we're in for a vintage season: you can make a realistic case for five teams to end up as Scudetto winners, and you have to include Lazio in that equation.

The likelihood is that Edy Reja's side will run out of steam and only challenge for a Champions League spot, but they have recruited well and been producing some excellent results. They look competitive at [34.0] for a title win, and should certainly be too good to see off Bologna in ESPN's Sunday night game.

Bologna ended their desperate run of 14 Serie A games without a win last week against Novara, but their home record is dreadful: they've lost their last three at the Dall'Ara, and picked up just one point from their last six home matches.

If you add to that the fact that their striker Marco Di Vaio is currently enduring the worst goal drought of his career, one that stretches to 13 matches, then you have to wonder how Bologna will find a way past Lazio.

Bologna's most creative player, Alessandro Diamanti, is an injury doubt as well, and that just adds to the feeling that it should be Lazio's evening. Last weekend's dramatic derby win means that it's now ten points from four games for Lazio, and they're reasonably priced at [2.26] to get another victory on Sunday evening.

Recommendation: Lazio to beat Bologna at [2.26]

Roma v Palermo

Roma against Palermo probably should be the game of the weekend.

This is a fixture which usually provides goals, and the two teams haven't drawn 0-0 in Rome since January 1973. That said, Palermo have shown a predictable pattern this season.

An ability to attack with verve at home, and yet a more cautious approach away from the Renzo Barbera, which means that they've yet to score, let alone win, on their travels this season.

With Roma almost certain to go forward, and potentially play into the hands of Devis Mangia's counter attackers, there is a danger that the game could produce goals, but the statistics this season mean that the best play is to look to back under 2.5 goals at [2.06]. Palermo won 3-2 at the Olimpico last season, and so are tempting at [5.7], but the absence of Fabrizio Miccoli, a man who has such a good record against Roma, means that I'll swerve them.

Recommendation Under 2.5 goals in Roma v Palermo at [2.06]

Fiorentina v Catania, Siena v Cesena

Roma against Palermo isn't the only game that may end up low scoring, as there are a host of fairly unappetising match-ups around the division, and there may be some value in playing 0-0 draws and under 1.5 goals in Siena v Cesena.

Elsewhere in Tuscany, Fiorentina are looking solid at the back, but the absence of Alberto Gilardino to lead the line has hit them hard, with Stefan Jovetic and Tanque Silva struggling to develop a relationship up front.

La Viola have won their last six home games against Catania though, and with the visitors conceding three goals in each of their last three games away from Sicily, Fiorentina could even provide a bit of value at [1.73] for the win. If Alessio Cerci recovers from a poor performance at Cesena last week, then Fiorentina could win comfortably, and I think that it's worth backing them in the Correct Score market to win by a couple of goals.

Siena and Cesena meet for the first time in Serie A, and the statistics point to this producing a low-scoring game. Siena have failed to score in four of their six matches this season, and Cesena have scored only two goals all season. Neither defence is earth shatteringly good, but then again, it may not have to be, and 0-0 looks the call at [9.2], with under 1.5 goals also tempting at [2.9].

Recommendation: Back Fiorentina to win 2-0 at [8.8], back 0-0 draw in Siena v Cesena at [9.2]