Scott Ferguson on the Australian Open (Day 8)
Betting tips 
/ Editor / 24 January 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now
Top seed Rafa Nadal continues on his merry way, he's yet to drop a set, and showed he wasn't too keen on the idea when he bounced back from 0-4 in the second set against Tomic on Saturday night to complete the job in straight.
Marin Cilic has won the only match between the pair, but being in a late-season event (China Open 09), I wouldn't read too much into it. The lanky Croatian has the ability to hit anyone off the court. Last year he defeated Wawrinka, del Potro and Roddick here before falling to Murray in four sets. In that first set, he was blasting winners past the Scot but eventually his superpowers waned and Murray wrestled back
control of the match. The opening rounds for Cilic were a breeze, but facing Isner on the hottest day of the event so far took a toll - 4.5hrs for a serving battle which ended 9-7 in the fifth won't help in the next round.
Cilic has the weapons to compete with Nadal but it's unlikely he can play at his peak for long enough. Nadal in four sets.
The biggest surprise at this stage of the tournament is young Canadian Milos Raonic. The 196cm Serbian-born qualifier has already brought down two seeds in his six wins so far and his run might not have ended yet. If his booming serve holds up, one more win is not beyond him. He will have to face one of the game's best returners though in David Ferrer.
Ferrer is on a run of seven wins, having claimed the Auckland title just over a week ago. Along that journey he hasn't faced anyone with a huge serve, but he has wins in the past six months against the likes of Berdych, Llodra, Querrey and Soderling, highlighting his ability to deal with tall players and their booming serves.
I rate this Canadian kid, he will enter the top 100 with his performances here and he can rattle Ferrer, although I'm not sure he can last the distance. Lay Ferrer to win 3-0 at around [2.16].
Soderling (1.13) v Dolgopolov (8.2)
From eight matches in Australia this season, Robin Soderling is yet to drop a set, serving a warning to young upstart Aleksandr Dolgopolov that he has a major battle on his hands here. Add just two dropped service games in those eight matches (once here) and the mountain becomes even higher.
Dolgpolov is a rising talent. He took down Tsonga in the last round but it must be noted the the Frenchman was struggling to move by the end of the match. I rate the Ukrainian highly but I struggle to see him breaking down the resolve of Soderling. He might get a tiebreak out of him, but I think that's it.
Soderling in straight sets.
The last of the men's matches for Monday pits an Austrian veteran against last year's runner-up. The Scotsman leads the historical slate 4-0 but Melzer was ranked no better than #32 for any of those; next week Melzer will enter the top 10 for the first time. After his breakthrough reaching the semi-final at Roland Garros, he has reached R4 of the next three Slams, a huge step up for a 29yo who had never reached the second week of a Slam a year ago.
Murray has cruised through so far with very little fanfare. He hasn't beaten anyone of note... yet. Melzer's no slouch so I can see an extended battle here. Murray to win eventually, but I fancy laying the 3-0 option at around [2.1]
Onto the women's matches for Monday.....
Peng (2.72) v Radwanska (1.57)
Radwanska's return to the circuit after a serious foot injury has been impressive. Her last two rounds took up less time on court than her R1 marathon against Date-Krumm, perhaps a sign of weaker opponents, but also a positive sign for her recovering her best match form. The Pole leads 2-1 on h2h, while her opponent Shuai Peng won the most recent clash (US Open 10). In each of their meetings so far, Radwanska has been a clear-cut favourite (1.35 or shorter), this time it deserves to be much closer, and their three previous meetings have gone to three sets.
Peng hasn't been this far in a Grand Slam before but arrived at this event on a run of two semis and a Challenger title. Ignore her ranking, she has been ranked much better than #54, injuries hampered her 2010 season. This is her perfect chance to step up on the big stage. I'll be backing Peng, the choice is in which market(s): to win, +3.5 games and to win 2-1.
Makarova (12) v Clijsters (1.16)
The Russian leftie Ekaterina Makarova has proven herself to be no mental midget with two grinding wins over seeded players, beating Ivanovic 10-8 in the third, and Petrova 8-6 in the decider. Her best is capable of stretching the tournament favourite, particularly after the Belgian was distinctly sloppy in her last match. Clijsters has beaten three former top 30 players so far, but none of them are in great states at the moment. Against cornet, she made a ridiculous number of errors (41 vs 13 winners); a better opponent would have made her pay for that. Clijsters should win this easily.
Kvitova (1.64) v Pennetta (2.54)
Sam Stosur's R3 conqueror faced Flavia Pennetta three times last season, winning only the last occasion, and yet she is clear favourite here. The overall h2h stands at 3-1 to the Italian (1-1 on hard, 2-0 on clay). Kvitova now has the boom tag on her which will crush her prices for the foreseeable future. With eight straight wins, she is at the peak of her game and she proved at Wimbledon that backing up after defeating a leading player isn't an issue.
Pennetta took time to hit her straps against Peer in R3; it wasn't until she was under the pump deep in the second set before she found her range. A slow start against Kvitova could be trouble, the Czech plays so aggressively that there won't be much chance for Pennetta to grind her way back into the match.
Tricky match, but at the odds [2.74] I think Pennetta is value.
Benesova (8.4) v Zvonareva (1.13)
Another Czech leftie in the fourth round as the world no.60 Iveta Benesova faces world no.2 Vera Zvonareva. The Russian leads the h2h 3-1 and won this clash here last season at the expense of just three games. Only on clay has Benesova taken a set from Zvonareva, her game isn't as suited to the faster surface, making a straight-sets for the second-seed the most likely result.
The biggest change to the outright markets over the weekend has occurred in the women's draw. The defeats of Azarenka, Henin, Sharapova and Stosur give Kim Clijsters (2.4) an even tighter stranglehold on the market, although Na Li is right in contention at 7 and Kvitova trades at 13.5 after being matched at 1000 some time ago.
In the men's winner market, it's still Rafa (2.8) and Roger (3.15) dominating proceedings. It will start getting interesting from Tuesday once the top seeds start facing each other.
