Betting tips / Geoffrey Riddle / 01 October 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The handicap is huge but Geoffrey Riddle is doubtful as to whether Australia has the strength in depth to beat it.

Australia
Australia have had an eight-day turnaround compared to Russia's six. In the last three World Cups there have been eight matches where the favourite was required to give up between 65 and 75 points. The favourite won five times. Wallabies coach Robbie Deans has only 24 fit players to choose from.

Russia
Russian coach Nikolay Nerush made eight changes to the side that lost 13-6 to USA to face Italy. Nerush made a further nine changes for the match against Ireland, bringing in their youngest player, 20-year-old Denis Simplikevich and Sergey Trishin for his World Cup bow.

Russia's lineout continues to malfunction. Against Ireland they lost six of their 13, to take their tally to 17 lost lineouts in their three matches.

Match Stats
Deans has been heavily criticised for naming Radike Samo on the wing, and two hookers and two scrum-halves on the bench.

Russia have named the strongest line-up available to them. Only Andrey Ostrikov, the lock, misses out due to injury.

Preview
Before the teams were announced the main handicap line stood at 71 points with the high street bookmakers. On Betfair the margin between the two teams was put at 54.5. It is clear that the true price should be somewhere in between, especially with Robbie Deans having to field unfamiliar combinations and a threadbare bench.

Russia played an under-strength side against Ireland and lost by 50 points, while USA also played an under-strength side against Australia and lost by 62 points. Back to what is largely the full side that pushed the USA close, Russia should be around 60-point underdogs and look value.

Recommended Bet
2pts Russia +70.5
(1-5pt staking plan)