Betting tips / Geoffrey Riddle / 20 October 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Everybody felt for the Welsh last weekend but that doesn't mean bettors should put their money where their hearts are on Friday morning. Geoffrey Riddle selects the best Third-Place Play-off bets.

If Wales could stop whining about Sam Warburton's red card for just one minute and concentrate their minds on defeating Australia they may have a chance at finishing third. Wales beat the Wallabies 22-21 at the inaugural World Cup 24 years ago and with Warburton in the line-up they would have had a wonderful opportunity to repeat the trick.

The third-fourth playoff is a match that is solely about the desire to win, as evidenced by France's shambolic performances in the past two consolation matches. Four years ago, in front of a home crowd, France meekly folded to Argentina 34-10. In 2003, New Zealand wiped the floor with Bernard Laporte's men, winning 40-13.

Wales may be too wrapped up in their own disaffection to realise that Australia are coming into the match pumped up and ready to play with their best side. Warburton's ban to a spear tackle is a severe blow for Warren Gatland, because Australia's David Pocock is going to take poor Toby Faletau to the cleaners at the breakdown. Falateau has barely played openside, and despite having a superb tournament so far he is likely to go out on a bum note.

Last week New Zealand cancelled out Pocock by aiming heavy traffic at him before creating crucial breakdowns away from his scavenging hands. For all his talents Dan Lydiate, the Wales flanker, is not a big ball carrier, despite his 6''4' frame, and it is questionable whether Gatland's pack have the firepower to knock Pocock and Australia out of their stride.

Although Gethin Jenkins has reminded everyone what an asset he is to the Welsh pack this tournament, he is most effective when he operates in tandem with Adam Jones. The loss of the curly-haired British and Irish Lion to injury is another nail in Wales's coffin.

Shaun Edwards' defensive lines showed against Ireland that they could be watertight and France did not get close despite their numerical advantage for over an hour last week in the first semi final. Australia's line also held firm against South Africa, and although New Zealand gave the impression of total superiority in beating the Wallabies on Sunday, they only scored one try.
All the talk this week has been about attacking rugby, but both teams pride themselves on defence just as much and the unders in the total points market may be worth a look when they are priced up on Betfair.

As for which team is going to win, Australia are rightly favourites at [1.82]. They have scored the first match try in 17 of their past 25 games. Once they strike, they are amongst the top three teams in the tournament in terms of fitness, which is something that will negate the advantage Wales have relied on at crucial times in New Zealand. Australia in the half-time/full time double result market is also an option.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts Australia to score the first match try [1.8]
1pt Australia-Australia double result at [2.6]