Betting tips / Gary Crispe / 06 February 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Gary Crispe of 'racingandsports' believes Progressive galloper Dubai Dusk should prove hard to hold out in the testing conditions of today's Volvo Commercial Vehicles Handicap at Cessnock.

The lightly-raced gelding has a win and three placings from just four career starts but perhaps most importantly has a win in the heavy conditions he'll encounter today in this heat of the Rising Stars series, a Class 2 handicap over 1100m.

Prepared at Broadmeadow by Michael Dwyer, Dubai Dusk made his debut over 1007m at Taree on a heavy track, and after getting a long way out of his ground motored home for an eye-catching third. He then stepped up to 1100m at Scone on top of the ground. Settling closer in the run just off the speed he again warmed up late to finish third, this time beaten a couple of lengths.

Last start before a spell was here over 1350m where he again encountered a heavy track. Settling fourth on the inside, he forged clear in the straight and ran on for a 1.3-length win. Dwyer gave the gelding a spell before he resumed last month over 1000m at Muswellbrook in a Class 1. Drifting back to last over the 1000m journey, he flew late to run into second, beaten 1.8 lengths behind Kartini.

Today he will strip fitter for the run and will appreciate the longer journey. The track and conditions suit and he drops in weight to 54kg after the claim for apprentice Darcy Matthews. The gelding is yet to run a bad race so despite the tougher grade he looks hard to hold out with the conditions to suit.

The topweight Spiritist is another honest galloper and is the horse to beat.

The gelding, from the Jim Jarvis yard at Coffs Harbour, is fitter for one run back from a spell. Last campaign he raced just three times, kicking off with a fresh-up win over 1150m here in Class 1 company. That was in slow conditions. He was then runner-up in a Class 2 at Grafton over 1200m where he raced second throughout, but found one better on the day, finishing runner-up behind Nothin Leica Luka.

Last start, before a spell, was over 1012m at home where he had a big weight, raced on the speed and fought on well for a half length second behind Seaza. Resuming at home in a Benchmark 60 over 1200m, he carried 60kg and sat fourth throughout before once again giving his all in the straight, finishing a 2.5-length third behind Little Johnie.

Today he drops 1.5kg after the claim for Codie McPherson. He will strip fitter, has won his only start here, which was also at the journey, and he is yet to miss a place at the trip from six tries. He has a win and two seconds from three tries in heavy ground and has a similar record in slow footing. There are plenty of positives and despite a wide gate he looks certain to be in the finish again.

The interesting runner is the former Victorian Rampling, which rates highly on his old form.

The filly, with local trainer Robert Davies, has started five times for a win. Last time in, when trained by Anthony Freedman, she ran some solid races in town as she was tested over ground, which culminated in a 9.2-length fifth of six behind Perfect Punch in the Listed Hill Smith Stakes over at Morphettville in South Australia.

She was spelled after that run and now is based at Cessnock. Worth noting is the fact that her sole career win was over 1100m at Geelong on debut, where she met a small field but proved too strong with a fast finishing win. Perhaps she is better off as a sprinter so it will be interesting to see how she stacks up in this area for the first time. She rates well and will carry just 53kg after the claim for Jessica Taylor.

Alli's Aria doesn't have the best strike rate but she is fitter for two runs back and her sole career win was in heavy ground. She looks well placed here and has drawn the inside gate

GARY'S TOP PICKS FOR RACE 5@CESSNOCK
(1) Dubai Dusk
(2) Spiritist
(3) Victorian Rampling