Betting tips / Andrew Atherley / 24 November 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Andrew Atherley is surprised at the value that still lies around Robin van Persie in goal-scoring markets, given the stellar year he has had, and thinks you should get on now before the odds shorten.

There is every reason to expect the hottest striker in the Premier League right now will continue his great scoring when Arsenal host Fulham on Saturday, and the stats indicate he is excellent value as first goalscorer.

Since his return from injury late last year, van Persie has been first goalscorer in eight of his 29 Premier League starts at a rate of 28 per cent, has scored an incredible 19 times out of 29 (66 per cent) and, with 31 league goals in the year to date, is fast closing in on Alan Shearer's 1995 record of 36 in a calendar year.

Not that any of this should be too surprising, for van Persie has long been one of the deadliest strikers in the Premier League - when fit.

His anytime goal-scorer rate has dipped below 40 per cent in just one of the five seasons since he became established as a first-choice striker in Arsene Wenger's team, and since the start of the 2009-10 season it has been running at 63 per cent. That strike-rate over the past two and a quarter years equates to odds of [1.59] in the To Score market, where he has been great value for backers.

Now that he is on an injury-free run at long last, there seems to be no stopping van Persie. At his scoring rate since the start of 2009-10, he will notch a minimum of 16 goals in Arsenal's remaining 26 league games, which would give him an end-of-season total of 29 that will be hard to match.

He is favourite in the Top Goalscorer market at [3.0] and those odds look good - the biggest element of risk being whether he can steer clear of injury.

In individual matches the stats point to different ways of backing him, home and away.
At home is where he has his best strike-rate as first goal-scorer, six times in 13 league starts in 2011 (43 per cent).

Arsenal enjoy the lion's share of possession in almost every game at the Emirates and create most of the chances, so it follows that van Persie - as the team's main goal-scorer and penalty-taker - is a strong favourite to score the opening goal. A stronger favourite, in fact, than the odds indicate, which means there is still value to be had for backers.

In away games he is the standout pick to score at anytime. His strike-rate on the road is a remarkable 73 per cent in 2011, with just four failures to get on the scoresheet in 15 Premier League starts.

With more competition from the home team, he is less likely to be first goalscorer in away games, but Arsenal's attacking policy on the road increases the chance of their main striker scoring at some point in the game.

Since the start of the 2009-10 season, Arsenal have had the best away scoring record in the Premier League (scoring in 38 of their 44 games). Van Persie has been fit to start only half of those games but has scored in 15 (68 per cent).

Pick of the stats

West Brom v Tottenham
Spurs have won eight out of eight against teams outside the top four

Liverpool v Manchester City
Liverpool have lost just two out of nine league games against the big six under Kenny Dalglish

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