Betting tips / Andrew Atherley / 12 October 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

He's not one of the more glamorous names of the Premier League but Bolton's American star Stuart Holden is absolutely key to Owen Coyle's side and their chances of avoiding the drop. Andrew Atherley urges you to just look at the stats.

Bolton looked in rude health when they won 4-0 at QPR on the opening day of the season but they have been haemorrhaging badly since then and the pain may well continue when they visit Wigan on Saturday.

Before the QPR game punters were warned in this column that Bolton had become a risky proposition on the road in the absence of key midfielder Stuart Holden, who broke his leg against Manchester United in March. The advice may have seemed poor after the 4-0 win, but subsequent events have emphasised the vulnerability of a Holden-less Bolton.

With the USA international now facing another six months on the sidelines after a brief comeback in the Carling Cup last month, Bolton look set to stay in deep trouble.
In 26 games last season with Holden holding the midfield, only the big six could defeat Bolton on a regular basis. But they lost six of their last eight league games after he broke his leg, including four out of four away, mostly against struggling sides, and the win over QPR provided only temporary respite.

Owen Coyle's team have lost all six league matches since then, including both away trips, and it is no coincidence that Holden did not feature in any of those games.
Nor is it a great surprise that Bolton won 2-0 (note that clean sheet) when Holden returned to the side in the Carling Cup tie at Aston Villa on September 19.

In Holden's absence from Premier League away matches since the start of last season, Bolton's record now reads: won one, lost six. As well as the only win, the QPR match also brought the sole clean sheet Bolton have kept on the road since Holden was injured.

Some might excuse Bolton's poor start to the season on account of a tough fixture list (they have played both Manchester clubs, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal in their opening seven games) but a comparison of their record with and without the US international against non-big-six sides is instructive.

Since the start of last season they have won nine out of 18 and lost only two when he has been in the starting line-up for matches in that category, with an average of 1.89 points per game (marking them out as a top-eight side).

But when he has been absent their record is much worse, with two wins and six defeats out of 10 at an average of 0.8 points per game. In other words, they play like a relegation side without him and it's little surprise they are now bottom of the table. Apart from the QPR win, their only other victory without Holden in that category was in April at home to West Ham, last season's bottom club. At [3.95] they are worth backing to be relegated.

There may be another factor at work too - it is arguable that Coyle is not a good manager on the road. In 10 Premier League away games with Burnley, Coyle managed only one point and his success there - in cup and league - was founded on good form at Turf Moor.

It may be that Coyle was lucky to find Holden when he arrived at Bolton - and has now been unlucky to lose him. With no solution in sight, however, Bolton look a team to keep opposing on the road and their relegation odds may well shrink further.

Pick of the stats

Chelsea v Everton

Six of the last seven meetings in league and cup at Stamford Bridge have been drawn (four 1-1).

West Brom v Wolves

Ten of the 13 derbies at the Hawthorns in the past 20 years have had under 2.5 goals. Wolves have won only one of those matches, with West Brom winning seven.

Recommendations

Wigan to beat Bolton at [2.38]
Bolton to be relegated at [3.95]
West Brom v Wolves under 2.5 goals at [1.92]