EPL Betting: Massive price on Bolton
Opta tell us that from the last 10 meetings between these two, Wolves have won just once, Bolton have won seven times.
The price of Bolton to beat out-of-form Wolves that has got Mike Norman more excited than any other game in the Premier League this weekend.
a href="http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105226478&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=4509" target="_blank">Match Odds: Man City [1.24], Sunderland [16.0], The Draw [7.0]
Despite Sunderland's big improvement under Martin O'Neill, there's one factor that makes it impossible to back the Black Cats in this game: Man City's home form. Fifteen league wins out of 15 this season, 44 goals scored, and just seven conceded is some record at the Etihad Stadium, and surely home win number 16 is just 90 minutes away.
Opta inform us that City's winning record on home soil is 20 games when you include the end of last season, and that Roberto Mancini's men have actually won 24 of their last 25 home league games.
Sunderland's recent away form is pretty poor and includes defeats to West Brom and Blackburn without scoring a single goal. That confirms that City ought to win this game, but at [1.24] to back in the Match Odds market we won't get rich quick that way.
From City's last 10 home league games the only time they haven't been leading at the interval was against teams in the top five of the table (Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea), so with Opta also pointing out that Man City haven't conceded a first half goal -- home or away -- for almost four months, then the bet here has to be Man City/Man City at [1.76] in the Half Time/Full Time market.
Match Odds: QPR [6.0], Arsenal [1.63], The Draw [4.3]
When you glance at the remaining fixtures of the clubs in danger of relegation then you have to fear for QPR. Away trips to Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City will almost certainly render 'nul points', and home games against the north London clubs, starting with this one against bang in-form Arsenal, won't be easy either.
It doesn't help when you have received the most red cards in the Premier League this season (six), the latest being Djibril Cisse for a crazy challenge at Sunderland last week. Now QPR face a Gunners side that has seen more red cards given to their opponents (five) than any other top-flight club this term. A Sending Off can be backed at [4.5] and looks rather tempting at those odds.
Other than an Arsenal victory it's difficult to know what else to back in this game, though with Opta pointing out that since Thomas Vermaelen arrived in England he has scored more goals (12) than any other Premier League defender, then he may be worth an interest in the To Score market. He should be available to back at around [8.0] if he starts.
Match Odds: Wigan [2.72], Stoke [2.9], The Draw [3.4]
A party was in full swing last weekend; no, not because it was a family birthday or anything, but because I actually called a game involving Wigan correct. The Latics have undoubtedly been my bogey team this season, but thankfully they did what I expected of them -- rather than the opposite -- against Liverpool last week. In fact I made a lay of the Reds my best bet last week, so I'm quite pleased about that one.
Unfortunately, that best bet was based around Liverpool being a dreadful team (and therefore incorrectly priced) rather than Wigan being a good side and I'm not convinced Roberto Martinez's side will record back-to-back wins.
My confidence in a home victory is dented even more after reading Opta state that only one of the last 10 league meetings between Wigan and Stoke has resulted in a win for the home side. Opta also tell us that five of the last seven Premier League meetings between these two have ended all square, so that's where my money will be going.
Under 2.5 Goals has an excellent chance of being landed but I'm not overly keen on the odds on offer at just [1.68] so I will instead cover the 0-0 ([9.4]) and 1-1 ([7.4]) options in the Correct Score market.
Ok, they may be playing a side in just as much relegation trouble as themselves, but how Wolves can be favourites -- and pretty strong ones at that -- to win this game is a bit of a mystery to me.
Let me paint the picture for you. Wolves haven't won at Molineux for four months, and that win was against a bang out-of-form Sunderland side at the time. Their only win since that day was away to QPR, another poor side, meaning they have won just one of their last 16 league games.
And when you consider Wolves' recent home form then I wouldn't be confident of backing them to beat the Dog and Duck, never mind Bolton. Terry Connor's men have lost six consecutive games in front of their own fans and during that time they've conceded a quite staggering 20 goals. Finally, Opta tell us that from the last 10 meetings between these two, Wolves have won just once, Bolton have won seven times.
Owen Coyle's men seem to have a bit of fight in them now, and we all know why. They've won two league games on the bounce and I fancy them very strongly to make it three.
Best Bet: Back Bolton @ [3.3] to beat Wolves
Back Man City HT/Man City FT @ [1.76] v Sunderland
Back Yes @ [4.5] to Sending Off in QPR v Arsenal
Back Thomas Vermaelen To Score @ [8.0] v QPR
Back The Draw @ [3.4] in Wigan v Stoke
Back 0-0 @ [9.4] & 1-1 @ [7.4] in Wigan v Stoke