Betting tips / Paul Krishnamurty / 28 September 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

For the large majority of PGA Tour players, just keeping your card is the season-long goal and many a man will fail in his attempt to do so. Some, however, are inspired by the challenge and Paul Krishnamurty identifies a quintet whose careers are on the line but who could reward at fancy prices over the Fall Series.

The PGA Tour and FedEx sponsors really couldn't have asked for a more exciting finish to the regular season, with Bill Haas producing one of the all-time great pars to win what amounted to easily the richest play-off in history.

However, while we won't see many of the big names in the States again this year, there is plenty left to play for, with the Fall Series starting this week at the JT Shriners Open. This is a run of four events to determine the final money list standings, and next season's playing privileges.

These fields are largely made up of lesser names, whose careers may be determined by this money list battle. Occasionally though, a very big name gets caught up in the struggle, and next week will see the biggest of all make his Fall Series debut at the Frys.com Open. Sitting in 115th place on the list, Tiger Woods not only needs to earn some cash fast, but also prove his wellbeing ahead of the Presidents Cup.

The urgency of the situation often extracts vast improvement from players enduring a poor season, for whom missing out on the FedEx Cup play-offs at least means an opportunity to work on their game. Ten out of the last 15 Fall Series winners begun the week in the thick of that money-list battle, either around or below the critical 125th place cut line. It is also an opportunity for tomorrow's stars to fast-track their way onto the main tour. The fall of 2009 saw Rickie Fowler make an immediate impact and establish his superstar-in-waiting reputation.

Moreover, the combination of struggling golfers and extreme pressure is not necessarily bad news for punters. Anyone who followed my Fall Series advice over the last two seasons will have made a handy profit. My 2009 'Five to Follow' included two huge-priced winners in Martin Laird and Troy Matteson. Last year's quintet included JT Shriners champ Jonathan Byrd. Here's my five for 2011.

DJ Trahan
Money List Position: 124th
JT Shriners Open Odds: [100.0]
Twice a former PGA Tour winner, DJ Trahan begins the Fall Series just inside the cut line at 124th on the money list, knowing he must perform in order to stay ahead of likely improvers further back. Trahan certainly has the pedigree to do so, and the opening venue offers precisely the kind of positive vibes he needs to raise his game. DJ has twice contended in birdie-fests at TPC Summerlin, finishing runner-up in 2007 and seventh in 2009.

Stephen Ames
Money List Position: 133rd
JT Shriners Open Odds: [150.0]
Ames strikes me as precisely the type of experienced, proven performer who can suddenly find a spark when most needed at this time of year. A miserable season has left this four-time PGA Tour winner languishing down in 133rd place, and trading amongst the rags for Summerlin at [150.0]. To be fair, his previous record offers very little hope of improvement this week, but the key date is yet to come. Ames will be on many a shortlist for the final Fall Series event at Magnolia, where this Florida specialist is a twice former champion.

Joe Durant
Money List Position: 157th
JT Shriners Open Odds: [150.0]
In 157th place on the Money List, Durant faces an almost identical task to 12 months ago, and is fancied to once again rise to the challenge. Joe didn't win during last year's Fall Series, but did produce four solid efforts to save his card, contending for a long way in a couple of these events. Punters should be aware that Durant's temperament failed to stand up on those occasions, but that is no argument against taking big prices in place markets. In any case, at this week's huge odds of [150.0], there is plenty of trading mileage.

Richard S Johnson
Money List Position: 186th
JT Shriners Open Odds: [340.0]
Just as golf betting becomes increasingly wide-open, there is a plausible argument in favour of backing proven winners blindly, in the hope that over their career, a profit will be generated. This extremely inconsistent player provides the perfect example, winning three titles on the European and PGA Tours, including twice in the last three years. Given that the Swede was a huge price for two of those wins, anyone out there who backs him week in, week out, will surely be showing an overall profit. Another positive lies in the fact that Johnson put up a strong challenge from a similarly desperate position when chasing a place in the 2010 play-offs. He was 11th at Summerlin last year, so perhaps his best chance lies in the opening event, for which he is trading at an enormous [340.0].

John Mallinger
Money List Position: 187th
JT Shriners Open Odds: [50.0]
While bigger names were focussing on the play-offs, Mallinger kept himself busy on the Nationwide Tour, and appears to have found some form. Four events over the past five weeks yielded nothing worse than sixth place - a record that reads well at any level. Mallinger will arrive at Summerlin, where he was third in 2008, in confident mood, with no worries about rustiness, unlike most opponents. He also made the top-20 last year at next week's venue, Corde Valle.