Betting tips / Frank Gregan / 03 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The market likes England's talking up of its chances ahead of the Test series against Pakistan, But Frank Gegan wonders if this mean Pakistan is being unfairly under-rated.

"He who shouts loudest isn't always right!"

There's a dozen variations on that old saying but the gist is true. England are about to play a fascinating series against Pakistan in the United Arab Emirates and both camps have had their say on how they think it will pan out.

There's no doubt about it, England are confident, possibly over-confident. The mood is massively upbeat and it seems that just about every English media pundit thinks that England are a shoo-in. The message coming out of the Pakistani camp is much more subdued, they're giving England tremendous respect and have suggested that they will have to play above themselves if they are get one over Andrew Strauss and his men.

Being bullish is great if you have the talent to see it through. It's one of those catch-22 situations, confidence is so important in any team game and talking yourself up is one of the most common ways to increase self belief. The old dressing room mantra "this lot are expecting to get beat, let's not disappoint them" is very true, if a team doesn't believe it can win then invariably it won't. Conversely, bigging up your own chances brings unnecessary pressure and gets the neutrals on the underdog's side because there's a thin dividing line between confidence and arrogance.

There's bound to be a lot of needle between the two sides after the unsavoury goings-on in the past and Pakistan's reverence towards the English should be taken with a pinch of salt. Pakistan are in great form and have nothing to fear. They are the 'home' side and whilst the series is taking place in the neutral UAE the Pakistani players are much more familiar with the surroundings than the English. By playing down their chances and letting England hold centre stage with all their big talk they are setting up the perfect ambush.

Pakistan lost only one Test match during 2011 and finished the year without losing a Test series. Yet they would like us to believe that they are the underdogs and will have to play out of their skins just to compete against the mighty English. Total pants! As has been pointed out in this column before, England at home are awesome, England on tour can be awful!

Opening batsman Taufeeq Umar has been fulsome in his praise of his up-coming opponents, saying: "We saw last summer in England, when India were touring there, just what a powerful team England are."

Spot-on, Taufeeq, that was English cricket pretty much at the top of its game, wiping the floor with a jaded, disinterested opponent. Sadly for us English supporters, occasionally our cricketers have to jump on an aeroplane and compete abroad against teams equally as hungry for success and that's when anything can happen.

Before I'm accused of having a short memory I do remember the Ashes win last time around. It was a great achievement and there were some sublime individual performances but let's not forget that it was against an Aussie team in transition and on wickets that most of the English bowlers had performed on before.

This time around is one of those occasions when you look at the market and think "why?" England are [2.26] to win the series with Pakistan at [3.35] and a drawn series [3.6]. This is going to be a very close contest and is definitely anyone's series which suggests the difference in price between the two countries is unjustified.

Perhaps the English backers have been buoyed by the comments coming out of their camp whilst the Pakistani supporters have decided to exercise caution similar to their players. Whatever the reason, we're about to find out that this Test series won't be won in the media, it'll be won on wickets and the Pakistani team are much more familiar with the wickets on which this series will be decided.

Whatever the outcome, let's hope we remember this series because of some scintillating cricket and not some...er...unsavoury incidents!