Betting tips / Richard O’Hagan / 17 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Richard O'Hagan smells an upset brewing in the AFC, and it will be Ray Lewis and co. who will be on the end of it.

Denver Broncos 10-45 New England Patriots
Wildcard week was supposed to provide the game where the Tim Tebow train hit the buffers.

The Patriots came prepared for Denver's unorthodox running game. The Broncos, on the other hand, had no answer to New England's twin tight end threat and allowed Tom Brady to dissect their secondary with all the skill of an expert on CSI. Denver were 35-7 down by half-time as Brady broke the record for most touchdown passes in a post-season half and Rob Gronkowski equalled the record for most touchdowns scored in a playoff game.

New England will next host the number two team in the AFC, Baltimore, a different proposition to the Broncos entirely, possessing the league's fourth best defence and an offence which isn't quite so narrowly dependent upon one man as Denver.

The Patriots will also need to do much more with their running game than they did against Denver. Admittedly, the Broncos almost invited them to pass the ball, but the likes of BenJarvus Green-Ellis were kept in check, to the extent that their premier rusher was tight end Aaron Hernandez.

Such is the love for the Pats that the market has them at a fairly tight [1.33], a price which will probably become even less generous as people catch up with the weekend's events.

Houston Texans 13-20 Baltimore Ravens
By no means the blow-out game everyone was expecting, this instead came down to one mistake early in the first quarterback. Houston's rookie punt returner Jacoby Jones allowed a punt to hit him on the head, fall through his hands and be recovered by Baltimore just two yards from the end zone. The resulting touchdown was the difference between these two sides.

The statistics don't lie, there was very little to choose between the two of them, with Texans' rookie quarterback TJ Yates throwing three interceptions but Ravens' Joe Flacco being sacked no fewer than five times by Houston's rampaging rookie linemen Brooks Reed and JJ Watt.

The 'Harbaugh Bowl' therefore remains a live possibility, with Ravens' head coach John potentially taking on his brother Jim, the 49ers head coach, in the Super Bowl. But to get to that point Baltimore has to get past the Patriots and, to do that, they will need to play a whole lot better than they did here. New England might have the second-worst defence in the NFL, but even they will figure you out if your only true offensive option is Ray Rice.

Similarly, the defence will need to step up a gear, too. The Patriots' offence is a much more potent threat than Houston's and it will take all of the combined skill and experience of the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed if they are to cut out the triple threat of Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez.

Baltimore are currently [3.7] to become divisional champions, which is a pretty generous price for a game between two closely matched teams.

Recommended Bet
Baltimore Ravens to beat New England Patriots at a price of [3.7]