Betting tips / Michael Vaughan / 02 February 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

In their slight underdog status, Michael Vaughan rates a confident and settled Pakistan as great value going into the third test against England.

First things first.

Just about anyone and everyone who has an opinion on cricket has been very quick to rubbish England's performance in the Second Test and that's fair enough.

Let's not forget one thing: Andrew Strauss's men were awful for a session and a half on day four, but they weren't actually that bad for the rest of the Test. They put themselves in a winning position and they traded very low in-play on Betfair when chasing a small target. England may have blown a great chance to level the series, but it's not like they were under cosh for the whole of the match, so we need to remember that before calling it an all-round dreadful performance.

There was nothing disappointing about this column's tips though, with an initial lay of the draw at [2.2] and a mid-match back of Pakistan at [2.54] both coming good.

England's batting may have collapsed on that fateful Saturday afternoon, but I don't see the point of ringing the changes. Bringing in Steve Davies or Ravi Bopara into a losing team against a trio of spinners they haven't faced, on a wicket they don't know, is almost a case of lambs to the slaughter. For all the failures Eoin Morgan, Kevin Pietersen and Ian Bell have had, at least they've seen plenty of Saeed Ajmal, Mohammad Hafeez and last game's man-of-the-match Abdur Rehman.

Now it's up to those three (plus Strauss if we're being completely honest) to work out how to play them better and go out and get a big score.

One thing England's batsmen have to be wary of though is to not get too caught up just with Ajmal. Yes, he was the guy who took all those wickets in the First Test and is probably the bowler with the greatest variations but by worrying just about him, they allowed the others to actually come along and take the wickets. Umar Gul took four in the first innings and it was Rehman who led Pakistan to victory in the second innings, with six. The latter is a pretty good player and if anything, the pace at which he bowls is the best suited to bowling spin on these wickets.

How are we betting on this then?

Well, you can lay the draw with a high degree of confidence at [3.55]. The First Test was over within three days and the Second within four so I don't see that this match will suddenly go the distance when all of the main factors: the players, the wicket, the conditions etc are virtually exactly the same. But the better bet is to back Pakistan at [2.8]. I see no reason why the team who won the first two Tests and doesn't really have anyone out of form is a bigger price than the outfit they've just beaten which is filled with players who will feel that they are under pressure for their places. There may be some morning dew to assist Stuart Broad and James Anderson, while Monty Panesar's return was a very pleasing one, so England's bowling isn't in a particularly bad shape. But to give themselves a chance of winning this Test, England will need to score 300 at least once and to do that at least one batsman will have to get a century. I can't think of too many obvious candidates.

It's been a quiet series so far for the elder statesman of this Pakistan side, Younis Khan. He has to come good eventually, any batsman with his class always does. So he's my selection to top score for Pakistan in the first innings at [5.0].

4 pts Back Pakistan to win @ [2.8]
1 pt Back Younis Khan to be Pakistan top first innings batsman @ [5.0]