Betting tips / Matthew Reid / 03 May 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

After two incredibly close games in Oklahoma City to open the series, the Mavericks and Thunder head to Dallas where Matt Reid expects another tight one.

The Thunder have beaten the Mavericks on five occasions this season, however, their biggest margin of victory has only been nine points.

You can't deny that the upstart Thunder have more talent than the Mavericks, but with veterans across the board and excellent coaching, the Mavs always find a way to keep it close. Both the first two games in this series were decided on the buzzer, with the Thunder being very lucky to hold a 2-0 advantage in the series.

Given how close the series has been so far, I am surprised to see such a big discrepancy in the prices ahead of game three. The Thunder is currently 2.46 in head to head betting, which represents enormous value despite them being on the road. They've been one of the best road teams in the league (21-12 throughout the Regular Season) and are accustomed to playing in front of big crowds and in loud buildings.

If the Thunder are to take a 3-0 lead they will need an improved shooting performance from Kevin Durant. Durant's numbers have been decent by his standards, but Shawn Marion's defence has forced him into some horror shooting numbers. He was 5-17 in game two. A knock on Durant's career so far has been some of his playoff performances, with the better defenders managing to get on top and force him into long contested jumpers. Durant though is a superstar talent and an MVP candidate and I wouldn't be betting against him to have a huge game three.

Expect Dirk Nowitzki and Russell Westbrook to also have big games, but ultimately the talent of the Thunder will get them across the line and force the Mavericks to the brink of elimination.

Given the closeness of the series, you may like to take the Thunder with a couple of points start at the line as an insurance policy.