Betting tips / Mike Norman / 07 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Mike Norman wonders how a manager-less Rovers will prove any opposition when they meet Aston Villa...

Bristol Rovers v Aston Villa
Match Odds: Bristol Rovers [7.0], Aston Villa [1.58], The Draw [4.2]

As far as straightforward games go this should be relatively easy for Aston Villa. They are a Premier League outfit who have picked up more points on the road than they have at home, and in their most recent away game they beat Champions League contenders Chelsea by a two goal margin.

Bristol Rovers, who sacked manager Paul Buckle mid-week, are a struggling League Two outfit fully 73 places below Villa in the league ladder. They have taken just two points from the last 24 available to them, lost three of their last four home games, and conceded an alarming 14 goals - at an average of 3.5 per game - in the four matches they have been involved in since just before Christmas.

So to say Rovers are out of form is an understatement, and yet we can back a decent Premier League outfit at [1.58] to beat them. It looks an absolute steal to me.

Shaun North will take temporary charge of The Pirates until a permanent manager is appointed and his first task will be to select a side without 11-goal leading scorer Matt Harrold who will miss the game due to an ankle injury. Goalkeeper Scott Bevan (calf) is also expected to miss out whilst centre-back Byron Anthony (groin) is rated doubtful.

Alex McLeish's only fresh injury concern is over defender Carlos Cuellar who is struggling to shake off a thigh injury; Alan Hutton should deputise. McLeish may opt to hand a debut to Irish full-back Enda Stevens, a recent signing from Shamrock Rovers, whilst goalkeeper Shay Given remains sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Match Odds

As alluded to above I'm all over an Aston Villa victory at [1.58]. Shocks happen every year in the FA Cup, but out-of-form League Two sides rarely beat Premier League outfits in this day and age and I'd be staggered if Rovers prevailed this time. You can go skint trying to back the 'shock' results that will occur this weekend and I much prefer to take the 'what might happen' element out of the equation and instead go with what is likely to happen.

Opta stats also offer confidence in an away victory. Villa have met Rovers three times in the FA Cup third round and on each occasion they have made the hat for the fourth round.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals / Over/Under 3.5 Goals

I know a lot of people don't touch the Match Odds markets on FA Cup third round day and instead prefer to play the Goals markets. I'm sure then that those punters will be licking their lips at the prospect of this encounter. Opta tell us that Bristol Rovers have scored a total of nine goals in their first and second round victories, whilst Villa have scored an average of exactly three goals per game against lower-tier FA Cup opponents in their last six games.

It's not just cup history that points towards a high-scoring encounter either. The last eight league games at the Memorial Stadium have produced a total of 32 goals at an average of exactly four goals per game. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.72], whilst the Over 3.5 Goals option can be backed at [2.8].

Correct Score

If there is to be a shock in this tie then I expect it to be a 'short-term' one; by that I mean not in the end result but perhaps virtue of the home side taking the lead, or at least getting on the score sheet at some point that will raise hopes of an upset. I fully expect Aston Villa to come through and win the game in a straightforward fashion eventually however and will cover both the 1-3 at [16.0] and Any Unquoted (any team to score at least four) at [6.2] outcomes in this market.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [2.8]
Back Aston Villa @ [1.58] to beat Bristol Rovers
Back 1-3 @ [16.0] and Any Unquoted @ [6.2] Correct Scores