Betting tips / Andrew Atherley / 15 September 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The stats show us that Manchester United's home record against the biggest sides in the division, Chelsea very much included, is quite formidable, and Andrew Atherley thinks you should therefore take advantage of an artificially generous price.

Manchester United have started the season at full speed, Chelsea at more of a wheezing jog, and the difference is likely to be evident in Sunday's headline clash at Old Trafford.

The stats point strongly to a home win in a high-scoring contest, with United well established as a go-to team at favourable odds in the big showdowns.
United are getting some of their big-six home games out of the way early - the 8-2 thrashing of Arsenal still fresh in the memory - and that's probably a good thing, because it's enabling them to pile the pressure on their title rivals.

Sir Alex Ferguson's side have won five out of five in domestic competition this season, averaging more than four goals per game, and have brushed aside Tottenham as well as Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Those wins have enhanced United's superb home record against the other teams in the big six - since the start of the 2009-10 season, they have won 11 out of 12. Add in seven wins out of 11 at home in the Champions League in the same period (five wins out of five when really going for it in the knockout stages) and it's crystal clear that United are a team for the big occasion at Old Trafford.

United have an overall home win rate of 84 per cent in the Premier League and Champions League since the start of 2009-10 and Sunday's match is one of the few opportunities to back them at odds that don't reflect their home strength.

Chelsea, meanwhile, took only one away point against the other big-six teams last season and lost twice at Old Trafford, both 2-1, in the Premier League and Champions League.

The Blues failed to keep a clean sheet in those crunch matches and that's a key statistical negative because United are almost unstoppable at home when they score - 36 wins out of 39 in the Premier League since the start of the 2009-10 season.
And United have a remarkable scoring record at home to what is now the big six, having suffered only two shutouts (both by Arsenal) in the past six seasons.

The impressive scoring record means that, along with a United win, the other bet to have is over 2.5 goals. Since the start of the 2009-10 season, 10 of United's 12 home games against big-six sides have had over 2.5 goals and overall in that period they have had 70 per cent over 2.5 goals at home.

PICK OF THE STATS

Aston Villa v Newcastle

Newcastle weren't too impressive at QPR on Monday night, but still their number of defeats against non-big six sides is just four in 17 games under Alan Pardew

Bolton v Norwich

Bolton have lost eight of their last nine in the Premier League and 11 of their last 14 league games have had over 2.5 goals

Blackburn v Arsenal

Arsenal have won only three out of 10 on the road in 2011 - all against last season's relegated clubs

RECOMMENDATIONS

Man Utd to beat Chelsea at [1.85]
Man Utd v Chelsea over 2.5 goals at [1.96]
Newcastle +0.5 on Asian handicap v Aston Villa at [1.96]
Bolton v Norwich over 2.5 goals at [1.94]