Betting tips / Tobias Gourlay / 20 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Tobias Gourlay smells everything coming up roses for Cesc Fabregas when Barcelona travels to the Rose Garden in La Liga this weekend, but fears that Athletic Bilbao may not be so lucky in their trip to the Bernabeu.

Malaga v Barcelona
Malaga [11.5] Barcelona [1.34] draw [5.8]

Barcelona raised their game to beat Real Madrid in the cup on Wednesday, but will they lower it again for the Qatar derby with Malaga on Sunday afternoon?

Perhaps.

Sponsored by the Qatar Foundation, the champions remain five points behind Real in La Liga and the main reason for that is their lethargy in the face of smaller opponents.

Pep's Team have won 13 of the 16 competitions they have entered. Winning competitions, particularly cup competitions, demands a lot of players physically -- they have to play more matches -- and, as victory becomes humdrum, having to visit teams like Malaga can become a little tedious.

Pep has won 3/3 league games at La Rosaleda (the Rose Garden), but Barca's record on the road in La Liga this season is a mere W3-D4-L1. Go back to March last year and the record is W5-D7-L2.

Bolstered by Qatari petro-dosh and a phalanx of new signings, Malaga have been beaten only once at home this season -- 4-0 by Real Madrid. Barca, of course, are eminently capable of inflicting something similar upon them, but a price of [1.34] assumes they are in the right frame of mind.

A couple of years ago, the Madrid press enjoyed talking about 'Messi-dependencia', the condition of being unduly reliant on a little Argentinean. They don't mention it much anymore, but could it be the root of Barca's problems away from home? Messi has scored in only 2/13 on the road since March last year. (Perhaps he really would struggle on a cold night at the Britannia.)

More recently, injuries to David Villa and Pedro, who made up Guardiola's first-choice MVP forward line last season, have not helped Messi - the replacements tend to drift inside more often, crowding his space in midfield.

Cesc Fabregas, in contrast, has scored in five of the six Liga away matches he has played in and in four of Barca's last six games anywhere. Back the ex-Arsenal man to score anytime at [2.1] or more, but be aware (courtesy of Opta) that eight of his team's 12 away goals have come in the first half. The real value lies in backing him to score the game's first goal.

Recommended Bet: Back Cesc Fabregas First Goalscorer @ [7.0]

Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao
Real [1.24] Athletic [15.0] draw [7.0]

The numbers could hardly be more convincing. Jose Mourinho is W23-D0-L2 at home to teams that aren't Barcelona. His Real Madrid team are on a winning streak of 22 against teams that aren't Barca. Worried about how Real might deal with their midweek loss to you-know-who? They responded to December's league defeat with a 6-2 walloping of Sevilla in Seville. When Barca knocked them out of the Champions League last season, they did exactly the same thing. Exactly the same thing - walloped Sevilla 6-2 in Seville.

Athletic Bilbao have lost 10/10 away to the Big Two in the last five seasons and Opta makes it 11 defeats in 12 at the Bernabeu. Their last two visits have each ended in 5-1 thumpings.

Marcelo Bielsa is not responsible for those dreadful records because he only arrived in the Basque country last summer. His experiment is producing some interesting results: Athletic have been beaten only once in the league since the end of September, but have been drawing more than winning (W6-D7-L1). It's to be hoped things won't be drawn to an early conclusion, but, although his men are on a run of six consecutive clean sheets in all competitions, there is not enough here to suppose they can live with Real.

Mourinho's team have scored four times or more in 9/12 competitive home games this season and that's the key to unlocking the value this weekend. If either team scores more than three times in a match, then it's Any Unquoted that pays out in the Correct Score market. This weekend, 'Any Unquoted' is on offer at [3.0].

Recommended Bet: Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ [3.0]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay