Betting tips / Brad Thompson / 11 October 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Atlantic Jewel looks to have the Thousand Guineas (1600m) at her mercy, but Brad Thompson believes she's at a price reserved for thrill-seekers.

Punters must ask themselves whether they can validate taking such a short quote in the Group 1 race at Caulfield on Wednesday.

Sure, Atlantic Jewel has blitzed her rivals in an unbeaten start to her career from three starts and is duly $1.61 on Betfair, drifitng marginally from the $1.50 which was traded earlier in proceedings.

But at the price, she has to be a risk for a couple of reasons.

She tackles much different opposition here compared to her three wins (as impressive as they might have been), and she also hasn't yet run at the mile.

Admittedly, she was eased down at the end of her last-start 1400m win, which augurs well for her to get the extra 200m, but Smart Missile (by the same sire as Atlantic Jewel, Fastnet Rock) showed in his Caulfield Guineas flop that a large portion of the progeny struggle to stay much further than 1400m.

At such a short quote, I'd rather back one for the place, that is certain to run the mile right out strongly.

Bliss Street.

She has beaten home Mosheen over 1400m in the Thousand Guineas Prelude, which is second favourite for the race. The reason for the discrepancy is that Mosheen beat Bliss Street by three lengths in the Edward Manifold (1600m).

Let's assume Mosheen was ramped up for that win (and had blinkers), and Bliss Street was being saved for her best showing in the Thousand Guineas.

Betting advice for Bliss Street would be to go one unit for the win ($24), three for the place ($3.3).

Another positive, sometimes hugely under-rated, is that Bliss Street is also in her second preparation. Atlantic Jewel is still in her first, which makes it hard to be confident she is up to winning again, espeicially in such a high-pressure race so early in her racing career.

Bliss Street has barrier eight with Steven Arnold in the saddle, but is likely to be in the last half of the field regardless.

Simply put, Bliss Street has done nothing wrong since coming over from Perth with trainer Dan Morton.

Back her each-way with confidence.

One other horse to watch is Detours ($60 Betfair), which wasn't beaten far by Manawanui in the wet earlier in her prep. How good does that form look now after Manawanui almost wore down stunning colt Helmet in the fastest Caulfield Guineas ever last Saturday?

The trainer of Detours, Peter Snowden, conceded she didn't even handle the slow track when nearly beating Manawanui, so be sure to have something each-way on Detours.