Cricket betting tips, odds and opinion

Cricket Betting: It's all in the toss

Betting tips RSS / Ed Hawkins / 04 April 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

With the toss bias in mind, it is obvious that the outsiders in this game are the value.

Given the respective strengths of Chennai and Mumbai, going into the first match of IPL 2012, Ed Hawkins sees the toss as the match-winning key.

With a record of runners-up, semi-finalists, champions, champions in the four editions of IPL, Chennai are the team to beat. In a format with a reputation for unpredictability, their dominance is extraordinary.

MS Dhoni and Suresh Raina are the key men and are in place once more for a tantalising opener against the Mumbai Indians. Dhoni has missed only three matches in IPL history and Raina is an ever-present.

Chennai will be without Ben Hilfenhaus and Michael Hussey who are on Australia duty. Ravi Jadeja, who Chennai spent their entire purse on in the auction, is an adequate replacement as an all-action all-rounder.

There has been some early turmoil for Mumbai, who are yet to win an IPL. Sachin Tendulkar has stepped down as captain and will hand over to Harbhajan Singh. Harbhajan led Mumbai to Champions League glory last season when Tendulkar was unavailable.

Otherwise Mumbai are settled. They will be able to call on their entire squad throughout their campaign as none of their players have international commitments. This includes Kieron Pollard and Lasith Malinga.

Venue and pitch conditions
In the 2011 edition of the IPL, there were nine matches played at the MA Chidambaram Stadium. Eight of them were won by the side batting first. That is a hefty bias. The average first-innings score was 167.

Match odds
Chennai are an awesome prospect on their home turf and it will take a mighty effort from Mumbai to get off to a winning start. Or they could just win the toss.

With the toss bias in mind, it is obvious that the outsiders in this game are the value. Oddly, the outsiders are Chennai at [2.00]. The market is wowed by Mumbai's ability to field a team of internationals, clearly. They are narrow jollies at [1.98].

Top Chennai batsman
Dhoni averages almost 40 in IPL, which is remarkable. He has 1,425 runs over its course and is likely to be priced around [7.00]. Raina has scored 1,813 at 36.26 and is the leading runscorer overall. He is expected to go off at [4.50].

Top Mumbai batsman
All eyes on Tendulkar, of course. The Little Master will open the batting and will be around [4.00] for honours. Watch out, though, for Richard Levi who will be his opening partner. Levi is the South African who against New Zealand in Hamilton made the fastest century in Twenty20 cricket. He will be around [4.50].

Recommended bet
Back the team batting first

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