Betting tips / Dave Farrar / 14 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Dave Farrar is expecting a mix of goals and cards when a resurgent Inter Milan look for their sixth straight league win in the Milan derby.

Inter's resurgence under Claudio Ranieri will get the sternest possible test on Sunday night as they face their local rivals in what should be a combustible game.

After the hopeless Gianpiero Gasperini experiment, Ranieri seems to have found a way to get Inter firing again, and their 5-0 win over Parma last week was their fifth in a row, the first time the Nerazzurri have done that since the days of Jose Mourinho. The main reason for Inter's improved results has been their form in front of goal; they have scored 13 goals in those five wins, having managed only 14 in their previous 12 matches.

Inter face a Milan side which may not be spectacular, but has proved highly effective over the course of the last two seasons. Milan are [2.2] for the win, and that seems a fair price, but the market which interests me is the Over/Under 2.5 Goals one.

"Overs" is the outsider at [2.2], and given the way that Inter are likely to approach the game, that seems wrong. The way to stop Milan's illustrious forward line is to sit back and defend the edge of the 18 yard box, deny space and force the Rossoneri to pass through you. Fiorentina got a 0-0 draw against Milan using tactics like this, but that is the only time in Milan's last 12 Serie A games that they have failed to score at least twice.

Inter are not good enough defensively to operate a modern version of catenaccio, and so seem likely to attack. That may work, or it may play into Massimilano Allegri's hands, but either way it should mean goals, and that makes [2.2] a fair bet.

The other market of interest is for there to be a red card in the game. At the moment, you can get around [3.9] for there to be a Sending Off on Sunday night, and it's worth knowing that with passions running high, there have been eight red cards in the last three seasons of Milan derbies. The referee is Daniele Orsato, who will referee his 84th Serie A game. He has shown an average of just under five yellow cards per match and 24 red cards in that time, but given the nature of the Milan derby, the likelihood of a sending off rises.

I think that [3.9] rates as a bit of value, as for once the cliché of a no love lost edgy game could well materialise. The one factor which could put us off is that Orsato is yet to show a red card in Serie A this season, but he did show one in the Europa League in December, and I don't think we should be discouraged.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.2]
Back "Yes" to a Sending Off @ [3.9]