Horse Racing Tips / Steve Mcghee / 26 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

The Listed $150,000 Bendigo Cup (2200m) on Wednesday sees the topweight Capecover, a likely Melbourne Cup runner, needing to fire and show trainer Alexander Fieldes that he warrants a place in the field on the first Tuesday in November.

Lee Freedman may have a third runner in the $1 million Crown Oaks (2500m) on November 5 at Flemington, with it all dependent on how the filly Sweet Lorraine performs in Race Six at Bendigo, the $30,000 Oaks Trial (2200m).

CAPECOVER after missing a start in the Melbourne Cup last year by the skin of a rice pudding, will not want to leave anything to sheer selection committee chance this time and his New Zealand trainer Alexander Fieldes knows this.

His charge is on the cusp of a start already and can seal it by winning the Bendigo Cup (please note the race is 2200m this year) on Wednesday and therefore take current form out of the equation, should a toss up occur in selecting the last place or two in the Melbourne Cup field.

The gelding may be a seven-year-old but being by Cape Cross from the Zabeel dam Set Up, it is stamina that flows through his veins and his half-sister Upsetthym (by Rhythm) won the 2004 G1 Auckland Cup (3200m).

He has not been over-raced for one of his age and in fact has won nearly a third of his starts (10 wins) and paid a dividend fifty percent of the time.

In over one third of his starts Capecover has lined up at either Group or Listed level, for three wins (two at G3 over 2500m and one at Listed level over 1600m) and three placings (third at G3 over 2500m and second at Listed level over 2400m and 2000m).

One of those placings came in the Listed Mornington Cup (2400m) this February under 58kg, when beaten less than a length by Banana Man and that has a link to this Wednesday in a couple of areas.

Banana Man won the Listed Bendigo Cup (2400m) last year in the hands of Michelle Payne, who was the fourth member of her family to either ride or train the winner of that particular race.

Payne of course has ridden Capecover before and was aboard him in that second to Banana Man in the Mornington Cup this year over summer, with her record atop the galloper being four rides for a Listed win and second, a luckless seventh at Listed level and a ninth in the G1 Auckland Cup (3200m) this autumn, when a victim of settling last in a total crawl then sprint home the last 400m.

Capecover is no track star, with his five attempts in G1 races yet so see him pay a dividend and in fact fourth is the best he has achieved to date, but he is a working class man type in that he keeps turning up for a good honest racedays toil.

He is tough and durable and very fit right now, after five runs in from a spell and apart from last start, when slightly disappointing in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m), the gelding was deadset ridden shockingly the two previous starts in Australia.

To be honest there was more slaughtering going on with him two and three starts back than on any given day at the meatworks.

Seeing daylight when the race is over or settling locked up back on the inner or in traffic until the chance to win is long gone has made for some harrowing viewing this spring for his backers.

We know he is a natural off pacer but there is no excuse to sit back in traffic and find every slamming door ahead that is humanly possible, as he can stretch out well for a sustained period when given clear air.

Fieldes was crestfallen last year, when Capecover just missed a start in the Melbourne Cup but he is more buoyant and almost ebullient this year, as the attrition rate for the race starts to become immense therefore making his chances of a run more certain by each dropout.

Capecover looks well in on 59kg at Bendigo, as he is meeting a lot of already tired or out of form stayers and no real depth but the drop back to 2200m from 2400m last year is significant, as that extra 200m would certainly have played more into his hands.

The seven-year-old would have to scuttle his own chances (self inflicted) to miss a Melbourne Cup run this year but with so many overseas runners that looked unlikely to line up now almost certain too, Fieldes still needs to keep a close eye on things.

Kerrin McEvoy will ride on Wednesday, which is a plus but he is almost certain to ride something else in the Melbourne Cup, so he is really saddle-warming at Bendigo.

He will ride a Godolphin runner (if they line up two) or quite possibly the Cup sleeper in Warringah for Rosehill trainer Chris Waller, as that horse impressed him in work recently in Melbourne, so bettors are advised to stay alert.

Waller has been greatly impressed with Warringah since it came too his stable, having been formerly trained by Sir Michael Stoute.

The gelding two starts back led up under 61.5kg and looked home in the Ebor Handicap (2800m) before wilting very late to finish fifth beaten a length.

Last start we saw Warringah run favourite in the Listed August Stakes (2400m) at Windsor but he finished a very distant second to Traffic Guard, although one can get perspective from this and his previous start.

Changingoftheguard, which may now run in the Melbourne Cup, was a luckless second in the Ebor, when dashing between runners late but in my eye he had his chance to win if good enough plus he did carry a lot less weight than Warringah that day.

The distant second last start by Warringah saw him beat home the Goldolphin runner Age Of Reason (fourth), which is relevant in that he prior finished third in the G3 Freer Stakes (2600m) behind stablemate Kite Wood.

Age Of Reason beat home Mourilyan (another Melbourne Cup runner) by a length that day and the last horse home in the race was Basaltico, which is hoping to get a Cup start.

Still bettors know that European form can be turned upside down once they come to Australia for the spring carnival, as some horses thrive and some simply sulk.

Warringah this time last year was beaten by seventy-six lengths by Conduit in the G1 St Leger (3000m) at Doncaster and Cima De Triomphe beat Conduit earlier this year then performed like a maiden in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) a few weeks ago.

Damien Oliver is ready to take the Warringah ride if McEvoy has to fulfill his Godolphin commitment.

Maybe after all the musical chairs by riders that takes place at this time of the year, almost like a crazed DJ is operating the turntable, it will come back to Michelle Payne getting back aboard Capecover perhaps.

Bettors looking for something else to consider in the Bendigo Cup should consider the four-year-old Zupacool, as he is still on the way up and a lot his rivals on Wednesday are on the way down or about to get on board that returning to the basement elevator.

Zupacool has a nice soft draw too, while Capecover has the carpark gate to contend with, so the tempo of the race and tactics is crucial to each of them.

They teach people to look left and then right, then left again, when crossing a busy road and it is obvious advice but very sensible lifesaving stuff.

Well bettors need to look for anything trained by Bart Cummings at this busy time of the year too and in particular staying contests because their spring stash survival may depend on it.

Cummings has Joe Blow in the Bendigo Cup and straight away you see it has no current form but has been running in lengths stronger fields of late and from bad barriers.

Last start was the G3 Coongy (2000m) and that was tough enough on an unhelpful Caulfield track and raceday bias but before that he ran in the form race of the spring so far, the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington.

Mark Pegus rides Joe Blow and from gate two under 53kg the planets are lining up again for another Cup to go into the already bulging Team Bart kitty.

I see there is no Bart Cummings as the winning trainer of the Bendigo Cup this century, which could well change a little after four o'clock Melbourne time on Wednesday.

The rumour is the Lord himself even quietly asks Bart for sage advice at this time of the year, when it comes to wagering and winning, and he has the initials to prove it (BC)!

Two races before the Bendigo Cup is run a small field of three-year-olds fillies will contest the Oaks Trial (2200m) and one of them is still nominated for a major race at Flemington over Cup week.

SWEET LORRAINE still holds a nomination for the G1 $1 million Crown Oaks (2500m) at Flemington on November 5 (the third day of Cup week on a Thursday) and trainer Lee Freedman could well have three starters in the race.

He has entered this filly in Race Six at Bendigo on Wednesday, the $30,000 Oaks Trial (2200m), and is clearly testing her to see if she deserves a place in the big race at Flemington.

She would have to win this or be a good thing beaten to tackle the likes of The Faint Perfume (Bart Cummings runner) and Run For Naara but Freedman knows how to prepare Oaks fillies.

Freedman obviously has Mont Fleuri and Well Rounded, as his top two stable stamina fillies in that order regarding their prospects but strength in numbers is a good thing in big races.

Bettors need to factor in that Freedman has won four of the last fifteen Crown Oaks (Northwood Plume 1994, Kensington Palace 1997, Special Harmony 2003 and Serenade Rose 2005), so respect whatever he thinks is worthy of being lined up.

Damien Oliver has been aboard three of them and Steven King rode Serenade Rose.

Craig Newitt rides Sweet Lorraine (a $300,000 yearling purchase) in what is a small but select field of stamina bred fillies and it should be a key midweek race for the rest of the spring.

Sweet Lorraine is by Encosta De Lago from a Kris mare in Dathiyna and there is some stamina form on the damside in her foals to race.

The racing this campaign by Sweet Lorraine has seen her cope with the distance rises and only a wet track has seemed to dull her finishing endeavour.

She has run into the likes of Hanks (the giant three-year-old Victoria Derby prospect that won the G2 AAMI Vase (2040m) at Moonee Valley last Saturday) and Jolie Brise (fourth last start and not far away in the G1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) at Caulfield).

I am betwixt and between what to make of the form from the Listed Hill Stakes (1800m) at Morphettville, as obviously it is several notches down from legitimate Group quality, but surely it is good enough to win a 2200m event for three-year-old fillies at Bendigo?

Sweet Lorraine finished a sound fifth at her last start in the Hill Stakes and stablemate Well Rounded, which finished a strong third in the race, has since come out and finished well late for fourth against the boys in the Listed Geelong Classic (2206m).

The horse that won the Hill Stakes was the colt Keep Control, which is from the very much in form Darren Weir stable, but he went around favourite in the Listed Geelong Classic and finished a poor eight though he did carry clear topweight of 57kg I suppose.

The half-brother to Sweet Lorraine was Big Al Hazim, which was originally in the Luca Cumani stable but ended up with Chris Waller at Rosehill and he got it to win three more races on top of the lone win at Salisbury in Great Britain.

Sweet Lorraine is well worth a win ticket in the sixth race at Bendigo.

Bettors wanting to look elsewhere in the race, where the only two race winners are Sweet Lorraine and the daughter of Zabeel in Reveal The Goddess, may need just to consider one more.

Danny O'Brien trains Reveal The Goddess ($320,000 yearling purchase) but he also has a filly on debut that is bred to win blacktype over ground in Stealth Cat ($300,000 yearling purchase), which is by the form spring sire High Chaparral (along with Sharmardal) and out of the tidy racemare The Mighty Lions (by stamina sire Grosvenor).

The Mighty Lions was a good middle distance and staying mare, with a G1 Avondale Cup (2200m) win standing out but her second in the same race one year earlier, in a nearly twelve length faster run race, was super too.

She also ran fourth in the 2003 G1 Auckland Cup (3200m) behind Upsetthym, after settling well back and also fourth in the 2005 Auckland Cup from a bad barrier behind Bazelle.

As a three-year-old filly she finished fourth in the 2002 G1 South Australian Oaks (2500m) behind She's Archie (runner up in the 2003 Melbourne Cup).

Damien Oliver rides Stealth Cat and Danny Nikolic rides Reveal The Goddess, with the latter out of the quality-staying mare Honor Babe (won 2003 G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) and I also felt her win in the Listed Marton Cup (2200m) in the summer of New Zealand was notable, as she buried them and ran away to clock a blistering 2:12.92.

It is extraordinary the breeding worth and stamina influence of so many fillies in such a small field midweek at Bendigo but that is why in spring time there is a story to be found or written in every race once you look a little closer.