Betting tips / Timeform / 21 April 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Timeform's Gary Crispe believes classy mare Secret Admirer and leading trainer Grahame Begg are the team to beat in this afternoon's $2m BMW Doncaster Handicap.

The Doncaster Handicap, recognised as the premier "mile" handicap race on the Australian racing calendar, has attracted a capacity twenty-runner field and as is normally the case has proved a tough assignment for punters to analyse, made just that much more difficult by the heavy rain that has fallen all week, making the track heavy.

Unless the track miraculously dries out to the slow range, the heavy surface will pose problems for some runners, but not so for Secret Admirer which will have no problems with a wet racing surface.

The mare is trying to join a select group of horses headed by Super Impose, Gunsynd and Chatham by winning the Epsom and Doncaster Handicap in the same season.

Secret Admirer comes into the Doncaster at her fifth run this campaign and brings with her some excellent recent efforts in the right lead up races.

Two starts back she was narrowly beaten under 58kgs in the G1 Coolmore Classic (1500m) at Rosehill almost joining a select group of mares to have carried more than 56kgs to victory in the race in the last 39 years. Then last start she sustained a very long run in the last 400m to just fail to catch Metal Bender in the G1 George Ryder Stakes also over the Rosehill 1500m.

The George Ryder Stakes has always been the best lead up race for the Doncaster in the last 20 years and Secret Admirer brings a solid 123 Timeform rating into play this afternoon which at the weights gives her a slight edge over her rivals.

Not only does a wet track present no issues for the lightly-raced Dubawi four-year-old mare but her liking for the Randwick 1600m, where she is already a two-time group one winner, reads well on her CV.

As a three-year-old, Secret Admirer won the G1 Flight Stakes and then last Spring brilliantly won the G1 Epsom Handicap, defeating subsequent Cox Plate winner Pinker Pinker.

Secret Admirer looks perfectly placed to run a cracker of a race again under regular rider Brenton Avdulla.

Away from her there are several winning chances, including Sincero, Shoot Out and Niagara .

Dual group one winner Sincero (Timeform rated 124) looks an improver coming into this afternoon's race. The lightly-raced gelding has raced twice since a spell but has impressed both times. Fresh-up he was just under two lengths from champion mare More Joyous in the G2 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) at Rosehill and he meets that galloper a hefty four kilos better this afternoon.

Then, last start, he was in a five-way photo for first in the G1 George Ryder (1500m) at Rosehill after making a long run from twelfth on the home turn. It was an eye-catching effort as Sincero travelled wide throughout yet was closing fast on the line.

Sincero has raced 21 times for 11 wins, including the G1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) last June and then the G1 George Main Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill, before failing in the Epsom behind Secret Admirer after getting into trouble and getting trapped on the worst part of the track.

With Hugh Bowman preferring to partner Shoot Out, champion rider Craig Williams now takes the ride and the pair look a formidable duo.

Australian Derby winner and multiple group one winner Shoot Out (Timeform rated 125) looks ideally suited, particularly as two of his three group one wins have been at 1600m. Now, under the care of Chris Waller, Shoot Out has been in great form in all four runs for his new stable.

After two sprint runs, Shoot Out returned to the winner's circle two runs back in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) at Warwick Farm scoring comfortably from Danleigh. Then last start he finished third in the G1 Ranvet Stakes over 2000m behind Manighar after having no luck during the race. That was 28 days ago and Waller has given Shoot Out a solid barrier trial last week to keep his fitness levels up: a similar preparation to that used successfully by Waller with 2010 Doncaster handicap winner Rangirangdoo.

Further, I see the addition of blinkers again as a positive move to keep the five-year-old focussed and another significant fact is that the last two Doncaster winners have both used the Ranvet as their lead-up race.

Champion trainer Gai Waterhouse will be trying for a record-equalling Doncaster win when she saddles up champion mare More Joyous, Niagara and Fast Clip.

Gai's late father, the legendary T J Smith, who last week was inducted into the Australian Racing Hall Of Fame, holds the training record of seven Doncaster winners.

More Joyous (Timeform rated 125) will not be suited by the heavy track and for that reason I have discounted her as a winning hope, however, the lighter weighted Niagara and Fast Clip do come into play.

Note that should the track recover to the lower end of slow, More Joyous cannot be discounted.

Emerging three-year-old Niagara (Timeform rated 121) is the more favoured of the pair. He was tried as a stayer in the Spring prior to being dropped in distance running second in the G2 Sandown Guineas (1600m) before going for a spell. This campaign Gai has kept him to shorter distances.

Two back when second up from a spell, Niagara gave nothing else a chance winning the G2 Ajax Stakes over 1500m at Rosehill in a canter but then failed to handle the step up to G1 weight for age class beaten over four lengths in the George Ryder. One of Gai's previous Doncaster winners Grand Armee also won the Ajax Stakes enroute to the big mile, so that formula works for racing's leading lady.

Today back-to-handicap conditions should see a much better performance and the fact he can race handy and handle wet going are valuable assets. It s interesting that second stable rider Tommy Berry retains the ride over Fast Clip whom he rode to win the Doncaster Prelude last Saturday.

A value chance in the race could be handy mare Hurtle Myrtle, which brings a great third-up record into the race plus the ability to handle heavy going.

A convincing winner of the G1 Myer Classic over 1600m at Flemington last Spring when she defeated 2011 Doncaster winner Sacred Choice, the mare has raced twice since a spell and showed enough to suggest she can peak this afternoon.

Recommendation
Back Secret Admirer in the Doncaster Handicap at Randwick