Betting tips / Gareth Purnell / 11 February 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Gareth Purnell fancies Manchester City when they travel to Villa Park, where he expects them to take all three points against home-side Aston Villa.

Match Odds: Aston Villa [5.9], Manchester City [1.72], The Draw [3.9]

Aston Villa have traditionally been a tough team to beat at home, but not so this season. In fact they have picked up only 13 points from a possible 36 and if we made a table based on home form only, they would be seven off the bottom and only five points off relegation.

The Midlanders last three Premier League wins have all come away from home, perhaps a sign that the pressure of playing in front of some seriously disgruntled fans is getting to both the players and the manager. But it might also be an indication that Villa are better when they soak up the pressure and use their pace to strike on the counter, and that when they are forced to make the pace, they struggle.

In fairness they have looked more potent since Robbie Keane arrived and Darren Bent came back from injury, with ten goals in their last six games. And I should point out that they may also have players coming back from knocks in this game including the lively Marc Albrighton, Gabi Agbonlahor, James Collins and Stephen Ireland.

But Villa have also been shipping rather too many (15 in their last ten games) and here they meet the most prolific attack on their travels in the division.

Manchester City are coming out of a sticky patch with three defeats in their last ten, but there are still only two teams above them in the ten-match form table and they looked very focused in dismantling Fulham 3-0 at the weekend. It looks like Vincent Kompany will be back and Sergio Aguero has also ended his mini goal drought after scoring from the spot at the weekend.

Villa are going to have to be especially careful at corners, of which they concede a lot. Despite having height in the centre of defence, they have shipped more goals from corners than any other team (10), while Manchester City have scored more from corners (11) than any other team in the top flight.

If Villa fail to win on Sunday they will set a new unwelcome record for the number of home games in a row they have played at Premier League level without a victory. But against the league leaders not only do I think they won't win, I think they will get beaten and at [1.72] in the Match Odds market , Manchester City look a solid bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Manchester City @ [1.72]