Betting tips / Gary Crispe / 22 October 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Even with a classy line up comprising 11 previous Group 1 winners taking part in this afternoon's Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley, Gary Crispe of racingandsports.com.au still feels Helmet will take all in its way.

The field contains the winners of several major Cox Plate lead-up races, such as the Caulfield Stakes. Epsom Handicap, Dao Tan Chin Nam Stakes, New Zealand Spring Classic, George Main Stakes, Underwood Stakes and Caulfield Guineas.

Of most interest will be the chances of highly talented three-year-old Helmet, winner of the Caulfield Guineas (1600m) in race record time last time out.

History will show three-year-olds have a poor record in the Cox Plate. Since 1970, 123 three-year-olds have contested the W S Cox Plate with just seven (5.6%) winning and a further 19 running second or third.

Only Abdul (1970), Surround (1976), Red Anchor (1984), Taj Rossi (1973), Octagonal (1995), Savabeel (2004) and So You Think (2009) have been successful.

The late Geoff Murphy trained both Surround and Abdul while the late Tommy Smith prepared Red Anchor. Bart Cummings was the trainer of Taj Rossi and So You Think, John Hawkes Octagonal and Graeme Rogerson Savabeel.

Since 1970 there have been 21 Caulfield Guineas winners to contest the Cox Plate in the same season and just two have been successful, Surround (1976) and Red Anchor (1984). God's Own was unplaced after winning the Caulfield Guineas in sensational style. So You Think ran in the race but could only come fifth.

On the face of it these statistics don't look encouraging for the winning prospects of Helmet, however if he runs to his Caulfield Guineas Timeform rating of 127, he will be the horse to beat as he takes the highest rating of the fourteen runners into the race.

Helmet is a quality three-year-old and a two-time Group 1 winner at two of the AJC Sires' Produce Stakes (1400m) and Champagne Stakes (1600m).

His record breaking victory from the front in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas last start, defeating Manawanui over the Caulfield 1600m, earned him the highest winning Timeform rating for the race in the last 25 years.

Admittedly the step up to 2040m in unknown territory for Helmet and he has to be taken on trust to run it out. But looking to history again for some guidance, Helmet does have a profile that aligns well with other successful three-year-olds in the Cox Plate.

There are four examples since 1995 that are relevant: Octagonal (Won Cox Plate - 1995), Encounter (4th - 1997), Viscount (3rd - 2001) and Samantha Miss (3rd - 2008), and the comparison of performances go back to their juvenile record.

All four came through the AJC Sires' Produce Stakes - AJC Champagne Stakes double at two, Viscount and Encounter, like Helmet, winning both, Octagonal winning the Sires' then second in the Champagne Stakes and Samantha Miss the reverse.

What do we make from this?

History tells us that Cox Plate three-year-olds who dominate over 1400m to 1600m at two have the stamina to do well in a Cox Plate provided their three-year-old form is solid.

The other relevant statistic is the record of Caulfield Guineas in the Cox Plate. Of the last nine Guineas winners to contest the Cox Plate, all have been unplaced, but significantly Encounter with strong form at two registered the best performance of all, finishing a close fourth.

Just four three-year-olds in the history of the race have completed the Caulfield Guineas-Cox Plate double: Red Anchor (1984), Surround (1976), Rajah Sahib (1968) and Star Affair (1965).

Helmet will take a Timeform rating of 127 into the race, a figure that is superior to any other three-year-old to contest the race in the last 40 years. For example, So You Think ran to 125 in his three-year-old win, Savabeel 122 and Octagonal 124.

The only three-year-old Cox Plate winner in the modern era to rate to that level was Red Anchor which won the Cox Plate with a 127 rating.

Kerrin McEvoy has been wasting heavily to ride Helmet at or close to 49.5kg. If he can get the star colt home, he will join a select group of jockeys to have won "Racing's Grand Slam" comprising the Golden Slipper Stakes, Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate.

McEvoy has already won the Melbourne Cup (Brew), Caulfield Cup (All The Good) and Golden Slipper (Sepoy). At age 30, he will become the youngest rider to have achieved that feat.

Crack New Zealand galloper Jimmy Choux (Timeform rated 124p) looms large as the main danger.

A winner of the New Zealand Derby (2400m) and Rosehill Guineas (2000m) at three, Jimmy Choux will emulate the great kiwi stayer Surfers Paradise as the last horse in 1991 to complete that treble should he be successful this afternoon.

And his recent form suggests he is well capable of doing so. Jimmy Choux is in peak form after three runs back from a spell including latest back to back Group 1 successes in New Zealand, taking both the Windsor Park Plate (1600m) in defeating subsequent Toorak Handicap winner King Mufhasa, and the Spring Classic (2040m), both at Hastings.

Those wins earned Jimmy Choux a new master Timeform rating with the promise of more to come.

Although new to the tight turning testing Moonee Valley course, I don't see that presenting any issues for Jimmy Choux. He should be able to sit off the speed and unleash from the back of the speed approaching the "school".

Track specialist Rekindled Interest (Timeform rated 122) will wear blinkers for the first time today and if his trackwork at the Valley on Tuesday was any guide with them fitted, they will certainly bring out an improved performance.

Rekindled Interest has been only lightly raced and comes into the race fifth run back from a spell, exactly the same state as when he strolled away from Lion Tamer in the AAMI Vase here over the Cox Plate trip at three.

Two starts back he came from well back to beat a good field in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) on this course then last start got well back in the Turnbull Stakes before finishing off strongly in the last 300m.

He looks ideally suited in today's field and is sure to take a hand in the finish.

Former European galloper Glass Harmonium (Timeform Rated 122) and Lion Tamer (Timeform rated 124) also deserve consideration.

Punters will be expecting a better run from Lion Tamer, a last start failure in the Caulfield Stakes behind Descarado.

The 2010 Victoria Derby winner scored handsomely in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield two starts ago before hanging throughout and failing to put in behind Descarado last start.

The horse has a history of mixing his form so trainer Murray Baker has elected to re-fit blinkers for his assignment today. Baker used the same tactics this day last year in the AAMI Vase when just run down by Rekindled Interest.

Lion Tamer is a tough stayer en-route to a Melbourne Cup start. He should appreciate the gear change today so look for a much better effort.

Glass Harmonium has been a model of consistency since coming to Australia, not missing the frame in seven runs including a win in the Group 2 Eagle Farm Cup (2200m) and a close third in the Group 1 Doomben Cup (2020m).

He will be all the fitter for three runs back from a spell and last start led to the closing stages before December Draw nailed him right on the line in the Turnbull Stakes.

Glass Harmonium is nicely drawn to get a lovely run on the speed throughout and although he will need to find something on ratings has shown enough to stay in contention.

The 2011 Cox Plate is an intriguing good quality race. After careful consideration of the historical and analytical aspects I believe Helmet can get home for the three-year-olds. That said, Jimmy Choux will take holding out from the rear in what should be a fascinating tactical battle.