Betting tips / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 May 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Profit isn't always about winning, and Paul Krishnamurty has five golfers this week at Sawgrass who by just getting into contention or finishing high on the leaderboard will rake in some dollars.

Back 5u Lee Westwood @15.5
Place order to lay 15u @4.0

Last week at Quail Hollow, I laid out a trading strategy on Rory McIlroy which successfully bagged a profit despite the tournament favourite ultimately falling short, making money as his odds shortened. Rory is favourite again this week, despite missing the cut on both previous visits to Sawgrass and I suspect the world number one may be upstaged by Lee Westwood, about whom an almost identical trading plan is recommended.

Sawgrass represents the sort of accuracy test that repeatedly stifles many top players - witness even a peak Tiger Woods' lacklustre record for instance. Stray offline here and you're liable to run up some very big numbers. Alternatively, hit fairways and greens with relentless consistency and even if the putts don't drop, you'll be making progress up the leaderboard. That set-up is absolutely perfect for Westwood, who would have won the Masters by miles if all had been equal on the putting front.

Lee has looked a likely Sawgrass champ ever since the late 1990s, when finishing top-six on his first two attempts. The last time he was here in 2010, Westwood traded odds-on before finishing fourth and coming off the back of a blistering finish to register yet another top-five at Quail Hollow, he looks perfectly primed to challenge strongly again. The beauty of such a trading strategy is that it offers reluctant Westwood-backers some insurance against him falling agonisingly short yet again.

Back Sergio Garcia 2u @11.0 for Top Five Finish
Back Sergio Garcia 5u @4.6 for Top 10 Finish


Many of those comments equally apply to Sergio Garcia - arguably Westwood's closest rival for the title of 'best current player never to win a major'. His long game is in excellent order and well-up to contending, but repeat failures to deliver, particularly on the greens, have long driven his most ardent admirers insane.

Even in the bad years, however, Garcia generally fared well on this ideal layout. Victory in 2008 was the best of three top-four finishes in the 'fifth major' and he's made five of the last six top-25s here, despite his game often being in turmoil during that period. Though he hasn't won yet, Garcia has been pretty solid so far in 2012, registering four top-12s from seven strokeplay starts, never on courses as suitable as Sawgrass. That all adds up to a rock-solid place bet.

Back Ian Poulter 1u @@20.0 for Top Five Finish
Back Ian Poulter 3u @8.4 for Top 10 Finish

Another European who seems strangely under-estimated across all markets this week is the bang-in-form Ian Poulter, whose Sawgrass prowess lies in finishing runner-up three years ago. His last two starts in the US yielded third place at Bay Hill and a challenging seventh in the Masters. There was also enough shown in two subsequent appearances in Asia to confirm he's in good form, ranking second and sixth in the greens in regulation department.

Back Peter Hanson 3u @8.0 for Top 10 Finish

Though not necessarily a man to trust in a tight finish, you won't go far wrong backing Peter Hanson in the top-10 market every week. He's made that position in eight of his last 16 strokeplay tournaments and is building up a fine portfolio in the big Stateside events. Third place at the Masters was probably the highlight of his career, following on from fourth at Doral and a quarter-final appearance in the World Matchplay. With 19th from last year's course debut already in the bag, Sawgrass looks the perfect venue to carry on the good run.

Back Jerry Kelly 1u @26.0 for Top 10 Finish


Finally, I've already made the case for Jerry Kelly at an enormous 870.0 in the win market. That is obviously a bit outlandish, but the top-10 is certainly a realistic target.

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Why not get started with a bet on the Players Championship three-balls?