Glory ahead for 49ers and Patriots

It will be a flashback to former glories for San Francisco while New England look primed for another Super Bowl appearance, at least if Romilly Evans stat attack is spot on.

Sometimes the stats unearth an interesting angle one hadn't previously considered, but this week they invariably seem to confirm what we already know.

Nowhere is that more neatly defined in the AFC which is proceeding according to plan, with the top-seeded New England Patriots hosting the No.2 Baltimore-seeded Baltimore Ravens at Foxborough. No surprises on paper. And on the field it's a similar story, as the imperious Patriots offence (which effortlessly racked up another 49 points last week) squares up to the fabled Ravens defence (which conceded a miserly 13 to the Texans).

The pair last met in the play-offs two years ago, when Baltimore handed Tom Brady's bunch their first post-season loss at home. This was largely due to a first quarter where the Ravens winged in for 24 unanswered points, while the Pats turned it over three times.

Of the eight elite quarterbacks involved in last week's Divisional ties, only Tim Tebow performed worse than Joe Flacco. It turned out Tebow was playing with shoulder, rib and lung injuries. Plus he was playing the Patriots. Flacco had no such excuse, throwing meekly and hesitantly for only 176 yards. Even leading talismanic teammate, Ed Reed, to comment: "Joe looked rattled. He can't play like that again."

In truth, though, Flacco often plays like that. Baltimore's fans know it, their team knows it, their management knows it. Even when Flacco has a landmark day (take this term's win in Steeler Town where he threw for 300 yards) his key numbers can look decidedly dodgy (one TD, 57% completions). This season, he is 4-4 on the road with only 10 touchdowns, six interceptions, three fumbles and 19 sacks. Stack that up against Brady's numbers and even the Ravens' 7.5-point headstart on this weekend's handicap looks insufficient.

However, Baltimore built their city on rock-and-rolling defence. Which simply means Flacco needs to minimise the mistakes. In fact, their aforementioned 2009 win over the Pats was notable for Flacco only throwing 10 times. Running-back Ray Rice (159 yards) and their D (currently third in the league, giving up 16.6 per game) took care of the rest. On this season's evidence, Rice remains in comparable form, so this is no foregone conclusion.

It's easy to be seduced by the apparent statistical disparity at quarterback, but this game is about more than two men. Factor in Brady's injury concerns (a heavy knock to non-throwing arm saw him sit out practice on Wednesday), and the Ravens might yet provide a much-needed shot in the arm for the old adage that defence wins Super Bowls.

Sunday's second game is predicted to be a tighter affair with only a 3-point handicap dividing the teams on the Vegas line. This game represents something of a flashback to the good old days of the NFL, when the San Francisco 49ers and NY Giants fought out a series of compelling play-off tussles between 1981 and 1990. In four instances, the winner then went on to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy. Still, that was all a very long time ago (their last Conference Championship match-up came in 1990 when the Giants prevailed). The past is a foreign country: they do things differently there.

Of more relevance must be the stat that the Big Blue has lost 11 of its last 14 road games against the 49ers, including this season's 27-20 loss in Week 10. Many similarities have been drawn with the Giants' 2007/8 campaign, where Eli Manning snuck his team into the play-offs before riding a road-streak to the Super Bowl. But the similarities should stop this week as Manning comes up against a defence which won't allow him any room to breathe.

San Francisco have given up an average of 14.3 points this year (second in the league), and are ranked top against the rush (crucial for freeing up Manning's throwing options). The 49ers even managed a rare trick in bringing the heat to the New Orleans offence last week where their sack-leaders, Aldon and Justin Smith, gave the normally untouchable Drew Brees a torrid time. Consequently, the Giants' line looks up against it. And that's even before you throw in a 49ers' resurgent offence and the homefield advantage of Candlestick Park.

There's much more than a field goal between these two sides and so, for my money, (at [1.91] to back giving up only 2.5pts) the 49ers are the bet of the weekend.