Betting tips / Tour Connoisseur / 13 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The Tour Connoisseur is all over the Tour DownUnder, and he won't be at all surprised to see Simon Gerrans at the front of the field.

Held in South Australia, the Tour Down Under is a six-stage event and the first on the World Tour Calendar.

All of the 18 World Tour Teams will be present along with an Australian wild card entry. The World Tour has a relegation system, so none of the teams will be treating it as a holiday.

However, being the first major race of the year, it's always hard to pick who is in the best form. One thing for sure, the Australian riders will be in good shape and very competitive.

Especially the boys from GreenEDGE.


Favourites

Simon Gerrans
He has just taken out the National Road Race Title on a tough demanding course and is probably in the best form of anyone in the race. He has won TDU before and without a doubt will have the full backing of his GreenEDGE teammates.

Cam Meyer
He is a team-mate of Gerrans and I would imagine he will be one of the other protected riders in the GreenEDGE team. He's also the defending champion, his form is good and he has had a pretty solid Nationals Campaign, picking up the silver in the Men's Time Trial.

Edvald Boasson Hagen
This guy can do just about everything, so the slightly harder TDU course will suit him down to the ground. He comes with a very strong Team SKY outfit and has said he will be focusing on the overall classification. Enough said!

Outsiders

Stuart O'Grady
He has won the race on two occasions, he comes from Adelaide and he's riding for Australia's first World Tour Team (GreenEDGE). There'll certainly be some extra motivation on the start line for this guy. He was in with a sniff until the dying stages of the National Road Champ's, so the form is coming. At 38 he's probably the smartest guy in the peloton too, so don't discount him.

Jose Rojas
The Spaniard enjoyed a very consistent 2011 as a sprinter, and seems to be able to get over the smaller climbs better than his fellow fast men. With the course being slightly harder, it may be just tough enough to offload his sprinting rivals and put him in the box seat.

Chris Sutton
He is another Aussie who had a good Road Nationals and will be looking to build on that form at this race. He proved his sprinting prowess at the Tour of Spain last year with a stage win. If in the right position, he will get full backing from his SKY teammates.

Matt Goss
He was second overall at this race last year after a blistering start to the season, and even though his form is not as good for the same time this year, he can ride a bike well when he needs to, so if he finds himself in a winning position he'll be a pretty tough guy to beat.

Smokey

Alejandro Valverde
TDU will be his first race back since the 2010 season. He has been here before and showed good form, and with stage finishes like Old Wilunga Hill and the tough run into Sterling, it will suit his style. He has said he's not expecting too much from himself, but for a rider who boasts three Tour De France stage wins, anything is possible.

In Summary
At the top of the list for me is Gerrans. His form is very good at the moment and I can't imagine anyone getting the better of him on the climbs around Adelaide. He'll have the whole GreenEDGE outfit backing him and is without doubt the man to beat.

This also makes him a bit of a sitting duck, so I'd put a little on Meyer and O'Grady as back up.

I'm pretty confident GreenEDGE will have a rider in the top three come the finish and it most likely will be one of those three.

Something on Boasson Hagen would be a fairly safe bet also, as he can perform on any terrain and has arguably the strongest team in the race with Team SKY.

As for the others, it is Rojas, Sutton and Goss, the strong sprinters, who potentially can get over the climbs then perform on the flat stages. A little on any of these three and you'll just about cover all bases.

Finally, Valverde is undeniably the Smokey. Before his two year ban he could go up climbs like the ones in this race almost quicker than anyone in the world. If he's in good shape and motivated he could be very hard to beat. A little on him wouldn't hurt.