Betting tips / Gareth Purnell / 01 February 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Gareth is backing over 2.5 goals at Reebok Stadium when Arsenal meet Bolton, and here's why...

Match Odds:Bolton [5.6]; The Draw [4.0]; Arsenal [1.72]

The stats point very firmly to goals in this fascinating clash between one team fighting for its Premier League life, and the other struggling to cope with a changing of the guard as they come to the harsh realisation that they are no longer one of the top flight's best four teams.

If you watched Arsenal's capitulation against Swansea in their last away game, you surely could not have been anything other than shocked at just how poor they were at the back.

Yet a look at the table confirms that Arsenal away games in particular are wide open. They have the worst, yes, the worst defence away from home of any of the 20 teams in the Premier League having shipped 25 goals in 11 games. Yet they have the second most potent attack away from home, behind only league leaders Manchester City, and that means their away games are super-entertaining with an average of 4.27 goals.

You would think manager Arsene Wenger would be desperate to address the issue by trying to tighten things up, but he's nothing if not stubborn and is more than likely to stay true to his philosophy of flowing attacking football for the rest of the season.

He's even on record as telling cavalier full back Andrew Santos that 'attack should always come first' even though he has been coming in for pelters from fans and pundits alike.

If Wenger is good to his word and his ethos, Arsenal will be great to watch, but almost certainly won't make the Champions League through their league position being five points behind Chelsea and ten off Spurs.

That's not to say they won't beat Bolton, and indeed I think they probably will.

The Trotters are showing great fight and have done brilliantly to lift themselves out of the bottom three thanks to three wins in their last six matches. They certainly caught Liverpool on an off day for the Merseysiders, but recent wins at home to Swansea and away to Everton show that there's a belief in the camp and in what the manager is trying to achieve. Their 2-1 win at Blackburn just before Christmas was massive in terms of the relegation dogfight.

However, they also ship goals at an alarming rate. Indeed they have absolutely the worst defence in the top flight having conceded 47 times in 22 games, and that includes the worst home back line, which has shipped 25 goals in 11 games.

Wenger can have no faith in his own side's ability to keep a clean sheet away from the Emirates at the moment and he will have identified Bolton's Achilles heel too. All of Bolton's 22 games have finished over Betfair's Over/Under 1.5 goals line but the price is reflected in this and you have to take on 5.0 to get involved. That's a sound enough bet in my book, but in this column I'm asked not to advise prices quite as long as that.

The stats are not so compelling for Over 2.5 goals - seven out of 11 at home for Bolton have produced at least three goals and nine out of 11 away from Arsenal.
However, the bottom line is that we are talking about the team with the worst home defence taking on the team with the worst away defence. I expect this to be open and there is every chance that both teams will score and at 1.73 I'm prepared to back Over 2.5 goals in this game.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals at [1.73]