Betting tips / Will Hamer / 16 January 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Betting against the behemoth, Avatar, could be folly in this year's Golden Globes, predicts Will Hamer.

Oh how we've been blessed this awards season.

In any year, one of the five nominees for this Sunday's Golden Globes award for 'Best Drama' would be a worthy winner.

The problem us punters face is sorting out which one will strike the biggest chord with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

History can provide some clues on who this might be.

I am ruling out Precious on the basis it failed to garner a nomination for its director, Lee Daniels. Unable to find a winner without a director nomination in the past 15 years, I gave up looking. If you can't get a directorial nod, you can't win best drama.

Given Precious is the double-figure odds roughie of the field, this only helps us marginally.

You can make a case for the remaining four nominees.

Despite its game-changing techno-wizardry, Avatar's corny dialogue will count heavily against it.

But can its box office bonanza be ignored?

Back in 1998, the Golden Globes kicked off the Titanic juggernaut, awarding it 'Best Drama'. It hadn't stoked the fires in any of the precursors until then and we all know what happened after that - 11 little gold men went home from the Oscars with James Cameron and co.

It must have been satisfying for the Globes voters to know that they kicked off Titanic's record-equalling Oscar haul. And they may be inclined to do it again for Avatar. Betting against what could be the highest-grossing movie of all time is fraught with danger.

The Hurt Locker has the most awards buzz and has been sweeping the critics' awards across the US.

While it's not saying much, it's by far the best flick made so far about the Iraq wars. Its biggest strength is its director, Kathryn Bigelow, and as I've previously posted, consider her a lock-in for that award.

Inglorious Basterds surely presents the best value.

Its current quote of about $10 looks rather enticing. It might not have been universally loved, but there's plenty of support from the Globes voters with its four nominations, and I won't be surprised if it can pull a mini-upset.

Up in the Air ticks all the right boxes, having been nominated for director, screenplay and three acting awards.

But for me it doesn't feel right. It's a great movie, no doubt, but like Doubt, I see it as being heavy on nominations and light on winners.

I'm prepared to risk it with three such disparate and equally brilliant rivals.

Up in the Air is in the red, trading at roughly $1.80. If you can lay anything under even money, then do it.

It's like buying three tickets in a four-ticket raffle.