Betting tips / Gary Crispe / 01 November 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Gary Crispe of racingandsports.com.au is preparing to shout 'Viva la France' at the finishing line of today's Melbourne Cup.

The international flavour of the Melbourne Cup is evident more than ever today with eleven of the twenty-four runner field prepared by overseas stables.

And while English trainers continue to be denied success in one of Australia's prized racing jewels, the French are back for another victory, their appetite being whetted last year through the outstanding win by the Alain De Royer-Dupre-trained Americain.

Not only is Americain back in an attempt to carve out another piece of history, but fellow countryman Mikel Delzangles has the impressive Geelong Cup winner Dunaden in the field, which at the weights rates as the horse to beat.

Dunaden came to Australia with sound staying form in France, and like Americain before him burst into Melbourne Cup calculations, winning the Geelong Cup over 2400m, a lead-up path that has rapidly gained momentum in the last decade.

For a five-year-old stayer, Dunaden has been sparingly raced starting just 19 times for five wins from 2000m to 3200m, three of those coming in the last twelve months.

After an unplaced fresh-up run in the Group 2 Kergorlay over 3016m at Deauville behind Jukebox Jury, Delzangles then sent Dunaden to Australia to complete his lead up to the Cup.

Melbourne Cup
Like Americain in 2010, Dunaden contested the Group 3 Geelong Cup over 2400m. Under 58kgs and as per his usual running style, Dunaden settled down near the rear of the field. Then, approaching the 700m, rider Craig Williams pulled the entire deep to make his run around the field, travelling six and seven wide entering the home straight.

Once balanced for the run-in, Dunaden quickly put the issue beyond doubt, idling to the line almost a length clear of Tanby, which has proven to be a reliable yardstick for staying form lines this Spring.

Dunaden earned a Timeform rating of 122 off that win, a figure slightly higher than Americain's 119 in 2010 prior to him taking the Cup.

The spacious Geelong track is probably the main reason why the Geelong Cup has now been elevated to one of the most important Melbourne Cup lead-up races.

Since Media Puzzle completed the double in 2002 there have been 27 Melbourne Cup runners that have used Geelong as a Cup lead-up race, with two winners and five place-getters the result.

Of note is that the two Melbourne Cup winners to use the race as a lead-up have taken the double: Americain and Media Puzzle. However, horses to place in both include She's Archie (2003), Zazzman (2004), On A Jeune (2005), Bauer (2008) and Crime Scene (2009).

Dunaden earned a half kilo penalty for his Geelong Cup win and like Americain in 2010 will carry 54.5kgs in the Melbourne Cup.

According to trainer Mikel Delzangles, Dunaden has improved further since Geelong; that being the case, he profiles as the horse to beat.

Last week Team Williams looked like having as many as four stable runners, but following Saturday's racing only At First Sight (Timeform rated 119) and Mourayan (120), two former Aidan O'Brien-trained gallopers, will be lining up in an attempt to give Lloyd Williams his fourth win in the iconic race.

BREAKING NEWS FLASH
After being declared lame by vets at 10am this morning, Mourayan has been scratched.
END OF FLASH

Williams as an owner or part-owner has won the Cup previously with What A Nuisance, Just A Dash and Efficient.

Both At First Sight and Mourayan come into the race ready to produce their best, the former coming off an eye-catching second to Tanby in the Bendigo Cup last Wednesday and Mourayan after his excellent second in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes over 2000m on Saturday.

Runner-up in Workforce's 2010 English Derby, the fastest ever run at Epsom, At First Sight was sold to Williams following his unplaced Irish Derby run the same year.

Given plenty of time to acclimatise, At First Sight was not seen until August this year and came under notice for the Cups with an impressive performance in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes third run back where he finished a fast closing second to December Draw.

Unfortunately, soon after At First Sight picked up a slight virus and missed a week's work, however last Wednesday in the Bendigo Cup (2400m) he showed that he was close to top form again, under 58kgs finishing on strongly from near last on the home turn for second.

This afternoon he tumbles in weight to 52.5kgs and will be ridden by big race rider Steven King who has already won a Melbourne Cup aboard Let's Elope in 1991.

The horse to emerge as a strong light-weight chance from Saturday's Flemington racing is Niwot winner of the Lexus Handicap over 2500m.

Trained by former champion conditioner John Hawkes in partnership with sons Wayne and Michael, Niwot's effortless victory earned him a Timeform rating of 116, his three-length winning margin being the second largest in the last 25 years.

Despite being a seven-year-old Niwot has been lightly-raced and brings stout staying performances into the race. Earlier this year Niwot scored easily over the 3200m at Flemington in the Listed Andrew Ramsden carrying 58kgs and his form this campaign has been sound.

The striking fact about Niwot is his liking for Flemington where he has won three times from five runs at the course. In another significant form line, two back he ran second to Mourayan over 2500m at Flemington in the Listed Bart Cummings over 2500m and they meet on the same weight terms today.

Further, his unplaced effort in the Caulfield Cup two runs back can be overlooked as he had little luck and has been unplaced in all four starts on the course.

Niwot looms as a major light weight chance.

German import Lucas Cranach is the interesting runner. Now trained by Anthony Freedman, but under the care of former champion trainer Lee Freedman for the Cups campaign, Lucas Cranach can be expected to improve sharply on his Caulfield Cup fifth placing.

Lucas Cranach was purchased by Australian clients after running fifth to Danedream in Group 1 company in Germany, a form line that would take on more significance after the win by Danedream in the Arc.

Lee Freedman pre-trained Lucas Cranach at Newmarket in the UK before coming to Australia for the Caulfield Cup, (2400m) a race he went into with some foot issues, namely a cracked hoof, that necessitated wearing bar plates in the Caulfield Cup.

Despite the set back Lucas Cranach ran well, covering a lot of additional ground before appearing to run short on condition 200m out, eventually finishing fifth to Southern Speed, running to a Timeform rating of 117.

There is little doubt that the Melbourne Cup over 3200m on the spacious Flemington track will be more to his liking. And when you add to this the other factors such as the bar plates coming off plus a higher level of fitness, Lucas Cranach stays in the mix as one of the better winning chances this afternoon.

The other Team Williams runner Mourayan has been largely the forgotten runner of the race. However his form is first class, especially his stout second to Glass Harmonium in Saturday's Group 1 weight for age Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) - a traditional lead up to the Cup.

Purchased by Williams after finishing unplaced in the 2009 English St Leger behind Mastery, Mourayan has been racing well in Australian without much luck, posting his maiden win two runs back in the Bart Cummings over 2500m at Flemington.

That win saw him return to his peak Timeform rating of 120, a figure he ran to again in the Mackinnon Stakes.

Mourayan also tumbles in weight down to 53.5kgs and although yet to win past 2500m, he will get every opportunity to set that record straight this afternoon.

Last year's winner Americain looms large again after demolishing the Moonee Valley Cup field a fortnight ago.

That was his first run in Australia this campaign and his second win since last year's Melbourne Cup victory.

After winning first up at Deauville in early August in the Prix de Reux (2514m), three weeks later he then finished well down the track (tenth) in the Group 1 Kergorlay Stakes (3016m) behind subsequent Irish St Leger dead heat winner Jukebox Jury

However there were genuine excuses for the Kergorlay failure, and his effort to win the Moonee Valley Cup in such emphatic style dispelled any fears he had lost form ahead of today's Cup defence.

American takes a 124 Timeform rating from the Moonee Valley Cup making him the highest-rated winner in the last 25 years and ensured he was installed as Cup favourite to become just the fifth horse in history to win back to back Melbourne Cups joining Archer (1861/2), Rain Lover (1968/9), Think Big (1974/5) and Makybe Diva (2003/4).

Concussion plates come off this afternoon, but as impressive as Americain was, history says he faces a herculean task to win a second Cup.

Moonee Valley Cup winners have an atrocious record in the Melbourne Cup. The last 16 Moonee Valley Cup winners to contest the Melbourne Cup have all finished unplaced, the most recent horse to have completed the double being Kingston Rule trained by Bart Cummings in 1990 and just the fourth horse since 1861 to complete the double joining Wodalla (1953), Blue Spec (1905) and Clean Sweep (1900).

Add to this the fact that if successful Americain weighted on 58kgs would join Makybe Diva (58kgs) and Think Big (58.5kgs) as just the third horse to carry 58kgs or more to win a Melbourne Cup in the last 41 years.

Americain ran to a Timeform rating of 126 winning the Cup last year but rises 3.5 kilos today in his quest for a piece of history. If he is to be successful, he will need to run to a Timeform rating of around 129, the same as Makybe Diva ran to when she won the 2005 renewal carrying the same weight.

British trainers are well represented again this year with several solid rating stayers, headed by recent Goodwood winner Drunken Sailor , Godolphin pair Lost In The Moment and Modun , Ebor winner Moyenne Corniche , Irish St Leger place-getter Red Cadeaux and Kergorlay winner/Irish St Leger dead heater Jukebox Jury .

All add considerable depth to a race that continues to gain prominence on the international racing stage.