Betting tips / Paul Bugeja / 12 May 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Dan Betteridge and any die-hard fan of Eurovision knows full well that talent is just one of the deciding factors contributing to Eurovision glory, and sometimes it factors less than more...

To some, Eurovision might appear something of a musical minefield: a contest where there's little rhyme or reason to the eventual winner. It's true that the continent's karaoke coliseum can be one of the more unpredictable specials markets.

But hardened punters will know that there are key factors that can influence the eventual outcome. Here we look at voting allies and the draw for the running order, two elements that offer a touch of method to the Eurovision madness.

Voting allies

The old mantra that it's who you know not what you know rings particular true for Eurovision. But even though the organisers have tried to limit influence on the competition by splitting the vote with the viewing public; Eurovision is still littered with geographical and political partners who are all but guaranteed to award douze-points to their voting allies.

This idea of sticking together often explains why Balkan and other Eastern European countries do so well in the competition. In fact seven of the last 11 winners have come from this region. You need only look at Azerbaijan's success in 2011 to see the impact it can have on the overall outcome. After their nearest neighbour Turkey departed in the semi finals, Azerbaijan were all but assured of maximum points from their neighbouring countries which provided enough points in the bag to see off stiff competition from Italy who were riding high off of the back of their return to the Eurovision scene.

With Turkey once again absent the signs are good for the host nation, who's chance of winning might be a little long at 90.0, but who have got to be strong favourites for a Top 10 Finish (1.6) with the support they can count on from their nearest neighbours.

At the other end of the spectrum are Italy 9.8 and United Kingdom 13.0, who are both amongst this year's favourites, yet can't count on the same amount of sure-fire support as their continental counterparts. The UK in particular has very few friends on the continent whilst Italy may also struggle now that the novelty of their Eurovision return has worn off.

The draw

With 26 acts performing on the night, Eurovision can feel like a musical marathon so a good draw is essential if you're going to stick in the minds of the voters. The past seven winners have come from within the final eight performing acts which is no doubt good news for Spain 27.0and Germany 32.0 who've got plum draws performing 19th and 20th respectively.

It's worse news for Engelbert Humperdinck, though, who faces an uphill battle after finding out that he'll be opening the show. However, patriotic punters might take it as something of an omen: the last time the UK entry was drawn first in the running order was 1976, when Brotherhood of Man brought home the trophy with Save Your Kisses for Me.