Euro 2012: Who will qualify for A and B?
To say things are tight is an understatement
Jamie Pacheco urges supporters not to give up on their side's chances in Euro 2012 as there's still everything to play for on match day three in Groups A and B.
I'm not too sure who will be more interested in the final round of group matches in Groups A and B: football fans or mathematicians.
To say things are tight is an understatement. To say they're complicated is a fair statement.
In Group A Russia look almost certain to qualify @ (1.16)). They will qualify if they can avoid defeat against Greece. If they win the match, they win the group (1.3). But they will also qualify if they lose... and the match between the Czech Republic and Poland ends in a draw. But if these two events happen, they will go through as runners-up, with Greece going through as group winners.
Poland will go through (2.28) if they beat the Czech Republic, irrespective of what happens in the other match; anything other than a win and they're out. They will top the group (11.0) if they win and Russia lose.
The Czech Republic will definitely go through (1.95) if they beat Poland. They will also go through if they draw, as long as Russia don't lose to Greece. If they do draw and Russia lose, the score between Greece and Russia will become a factor because after head-to-head record between tied teams, the next deciding factor is the aggregate scoreline between them. The Czech Republic will top the group (7.4) if they win and Russia lose.
Greece need to win to stand any chance. If they win and the other match is a draw the scenario from above comes into play. If they win and Poland win then it will be Greece (5.5) and Poland who will go through. If they win and the Czech Republic win, it will be them and the Czechs going through, with the latter topping the group.
It's not much simpler in Group B. Germany will qualify (1.04) as long as they don't lose to Denmark. If they lose and Portugal win, it will come down to the scorelines on the day. They will automatically top the group (1.15) if they don't lose, and may yet top the group even if they lose, provided Portugal win.
Portugal are through (1.5) as long as Germany don't lose. If they win and Germany lose then Denmark, Germany and them will be tied on six points. Portugal are also through if they draw, provided Denmark don't win.
Denmark are out if they lose.
I told you the mathematicians would have fun.