Euro 2012 Betting: Highs ahead for Low
The goals have flowed in this tournament and there's no reason to believe the pattern will break here.
James Eastham believes the cream will rise to the top when Germany meets Denmark in their Sunday night Euro 2012 clash.
The motivations of the two sides is different. Germany need only a point to go through, while Denmark have to play to win, and even they may need to rely on a favourable result in the group's other game.
The fact Denmark will go for victory plays into Germany's hands, as the match favourites' quick, precise football on the break is capable of tearing apart virtually every defence in the competition.
And the Danes have defended poorly. They were lucky to keep a clean sheet against Holland - according to whoscored.com, the Dutch managed 32 attempts on goal but 22 of them were off-target (see a full statistical breakdown of the game here) - and then conceded three times against Portugal.
On the evidence of the tournament so far, the Germans at (1.78) are the only sensible bet.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The goals have flowed in this tournament and there's no reason to believe the pattern will break here. As we mentioned above, the Danes have a poor defence, and the Germans have the potential and will to tear them apart. The do-or-die nature of this game for Denmark also suggests there will be chances at both ends.
I have a slight reservation about backing overs at (1.93), however, because of Germany's defensive abilities. They kept a clean sheet in their opening game against Portugal (1-0) and then only a wonder strike from Robin van Persie breached their resistance in the second game.
The second reason I'm wary of going overs is Germany don't need to win. They can afford to take the sting out of it in the early stages, and then hit Denmark harder in the second period, when the visitors will be forced to come out. This approach may lead to a German victory, but not necessarily a high-scoring one.
I'd steer clear of the overs/unders market.
As explained in our preview of Sunday's other game, the Group B corners count has been high - an average of 13.25 per game, with no game featuring fewer than 12. The smart way to make this pay is to split your stakes across 10-12 corners and 13 or more corners, as you'll make a profit should one of them come in.
Germany Win to Nil
I fancy Germany at 1.78 but if you're looking for bigger odds on the match favourites then a Germany win to nil is worth considering. Low's team have already kept one clean sheet and it took a fabulous strike from van Persie to break their resistance in their second game, so Denmark will have to produce something special to score.
A price around 3.0 shortly before kick-off will attract attention.
Recommended Betfair Bets
Germany to win @ (1.78)