EPL Betting: Sunderland v Manchester United
United have won eight out of 10 of their final away matches in the 10 seasons since 2001-02.
The Soccer Widow believes Sir Alex Ferguson can only hope for good news elsewhere on Sunday when his side meets Sunderland in the Premier League match-up.
Everyone knows that Manchester United have to beat Sunderland this weekend, and hope QPR do them a favour by taking points at the Etihad Stadium.
Stranger things have happened.
Sunderland's home record is distorted by the mid-season revival and subsequent mini-slump under new manager Martin O'Neill and with only eight home wins from their last 25 (32%), they fall some way short of the Premier League average, which is closer to 45%.
United have won eight out of 10 (losing one and drawing one, both against Chelsea) of their final away matches in the 10 seasons since 2001-02. Sunderland have only mustered four victories in their last 10 final Premier League home games (and have drawn one, lost five), but this record stretches back to 1996-97 due to spells in the Championship and old First Division.
Salient statistics for the bet selections
Head-to-head (Sunderland home, United away, 10 matches since 1999, all competition:
· Sunderland wins: zero (0%); four draws (40%); United wins: six (60%)
· Full-time under 4.5 goals: 10 times (100%)
· Half-time under 1.5 goals: eight times (80%)
Sunderland's last 25 Premier League home matches:
· Sunderland wins: eight (32%); seven draws (28%); 10 defeats (40%)
· Full-time under 4.5 goals: 22 times (88%)
· Half-time under 1.5 goals: 15 times (60%)
Manchester United's last 25 Premier League away games:
· Manchester United wins: 14 (56%); five draws (20%); six defeats (24%)
· Full-time under 4.5 goals: 20 (80%)
· Less than 1.5 goals half time: 19 (76%)
United are the clear favourites with a 54% chance of winning according to Soccer Widow's stats, but the odds currently offered at 1.47 are under 'value' and should be closer to 1.85.
Furthermore, not many goals are expected in this match. In the 10 most recent head-to-head matches there were 25 goals in total, Sunderland scoring seven (28%) and United 18 (72%). United only won three of these 10 games with a goal difference of two or more, and the stats suggest the most likely correct scores for this match are 0-1 or 1-2.
'Value' bet recommendations
Back "Full-time: Draw" (Odds: 5.0; Zero or 'true' odds: 3.13; Value: 60%; Probability: 32%)
Back "Under 4.5 goals" (Odds: 1.24; Zero or 'true' odds: 1.09; Value: 14.1%; Probability: 92%)
Back "First Half Under 1.5 goals" (Odds: 1.59; Zero or 'true' odds: 1.35; Value: 17.7%; Probability: 74%)