EPL Betting: Man City all the way

Betting tips / Paul Bugeja / 10 May 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

City have scored at least two goals in their previous nine home games against teams from the bottom half of the table

Rounding up the stats for the last time this Premier League season, Andrew Atherley finds the best news is for Man City, Bolton and Wigan.

Manchester City are the best home team in the Premier League and on form there is no way they can fail to secure the win against QPR on Sunday that will give them their first title in 44 years.

Rangers are the Premier League's worst away team, making this match the best-case scenario for City on the final day of the season, even if the west Londoners are still battling for the point that would in all probability keep them up.

City are 1.14 for the win and 1.12 to take the title, and it's difficult to see how they can fail. They have dropped only two points at home this season (in a 3-3 with Sunderland) and their exceptional home form stretches back much further than this season - 26 wins and two draws in the 28 home league games since their last defeat.

QPR, meanwhile, have had only three wins on the road all season and all of those came before Mark Hughes was appointed manager. Under Hughes their away record is abysmal: one point out of a possible 24.

Putting the record of the two teams side by side, one bet stands out at better than even-money. Over 3.5 goals is available to back at 2.06 and, despite the possibility of City sitting on a lead to protect what they've got, most of the figures point that way.

City have scored at least two goals in their previous nine home games against teams from the bottom half of the table and only one of the nine has been under 2.5 goals, while five have been over 3.5 goals.

QPR, on the flip-side, have conceded at least two goals in six of their eight away games under Hughes, with five of the eight over 2.5 goals and four over 3.5 goals. The figures indicate that over 3.5 goals should be odds-on, so there is some value there at least.

QPR's survival rivals Bolton need to win at Stoke to have any chance of staying up and they can take hope from what happened at the Britannia stadium on the final day of last season.

On that occasion, Wigan won 1-0 to lift themselves out of the bottom three and send Birmingham down instead. Stoke were lying ninth when they faced Wigan and are 14th now, so Bolton's task is easier on paper.

There is more pressure on the Trotters, however, because a point can't possibly keep them up - whereas for Wigan a draw could (and, because Birmingham lost at Tottenham, would) have been enough.

Bolton have a significant form stat in their favour - their excellent away record against bottom-half teams. Owen Coyle's team have won five out of eight in that category, with just two defeats, and look worth backing off -0 on the Asian handicap at around 2.08.

Dave Whelan - a rare commodity these days as a chairman with passion for his club and loyalty to his managers - has to be one of the heroes of the season.
Having first questioned but then backed Roberto Martinez after Wigan's 2-0 home defeat by Swansea in early March, Whelan has been rewarded with an amazing run to safety.

Since the Swansea game, Wigan have won six, drawn two and lost just two for a total of 20 points, surpassed only by Manchester United and Newcastle over the past 10 games.
That makes them fully deserving of short-priced favouritism at 1.66 for their final-day home game against relegated Wolves. Wigan were two points behind Wolves after the Swansea defeat but Wolves have managed only three points since and it's difficult to see them taking anything against the in-form home team.