Betting tips / Lee Dixon / 30 April 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Lee Dixon isn't expecting anything other than a low-scoring draw when the two Manchesters meet in their monday night Premier League match-up.

I grew up supporting City and, while local bragging rights were hotly contested around our way, I can't remember a match between the two clubs with so much at stake.

So far this season, they've played three (including the Community Shield), with United winning two and City one, although I think the Blues' 6-1 rout at Old Trafford counts for a lot.

Before Christmas it looked like this was City's title to lose, then they fell apart and Sir Alex's men seized the initiative.

Like most pundits, I'd written City off.

How wrong I was?

Last Sunday's extraordinary 4-4 between United and Everton handed the initiative back to their rivals. The upshot is a mouthwatering fixture that looks likely to settle the title, although I still think City will have to be at their best to take anything from their match against Newcastle.

Match Odds

I don't expect a frenetic the start. The first 20 minutes or so could be cagey and, while City boast an imperious home record, Opta remind us that, in their last five visits to the Etihad, United have lost only once. This fixture underwhelmed last season, finishing 0-0 and, while I think on Monday we'll see a much better game, tactical acuity, focus and resilience may be more important than attacking flair. That might seem like a strange thing to say, with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Carlos Tevez and Sergio Aguero all bang in form, but both managers are experienced operators and they won't wish to give anything away.

The teams haven't produced a draw since they met here last season. That result would suit United and, while I don't expect Sir Alex to tell his players to play for a point, he might be tempted to flood the midfield and get men behind the ball if the score is level late in the second-half.

Under 2.5 goals

Fixtures between these two have produced 17 goals this season. That's a towering stat, almost six goals per game, and, if you anticipate more of the same on Monday, you can get 5.2 on over 4.5 goals. I'm not convinced that we'll see the riotous display of attacking football that many anticipate. Opta tell us that City scored their six at Old Trafford from only seven shots on target. That suggests that if you give City's strikers chances they will take them and, with United's defence looking vulnerable, you might expect the Premier League's best attack to take advantage. But I still think both teams will keep this one tight so I'm going to back under 2.5 goals.

To Score

It's set up for Carlos Tevez to score. Spat out by Sir Alex Ferguson, maligned by Roberto Mancini, the Argentine has re-entered the fold and he hasn't done too badly so far. I hadn't expected to see Tevez in a City shirt again so it was surreal to watch him score against West Brom. However, smashing his hat-trick against Norwich he looked like he'd never been away. He'd love to prove a point on Monday and I'm going to back him to find the net. Wayne Rooney, Opta remind us, is on fire with 11 in his last 13 matches, including another two last week.

Recommended Bets
1 pt Back the draw @3.65
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @2.26
1pt Back 1-1 @ 8.2
2pts Back Carlos Tevez to score @2.70