Betting tips / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 December 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

It's all about the environment for Paul Krishnamurty as he identifies who to follow on day one of the Dubai World Championships.

5u Jaco Van Zyl @ [2.4] (vs Els) (Starts 04.20)
One would imagine that any aspiring young South African golfer over the past 20 years must have dreamed about the day when they reached a position in the sport to be considered favourite against Ernie Els. While Jaco Van Zyl hasn't quite earned that accolade yet, it may be imminent and in my view layers have got this match-up all wrong by making him the outsider of two.
You know Ernie's game is in trouble when he finishes 69th in a South African Open, or struggles at Royal Melbourne, one of his all-time favourite layouts and scene of his previous start in the Presidents Cup. In particular, his putting has become an embarrassment, making the Big Easy a man to oppose at all costs on fast greens like those at the Earth Course, which measure an formidable 12 on the stimp-meter. Indeed, they probably explain his two disappointing efforts here, finishing 50th and 28th.
His compatriot has become a model of consistency, making every cut since June and rarely missing a top-20. During that period, Van Zyl has only once shot an opening round worse than 70, so looks bound to set a solid target.

4u Louis Oosthuizen @ [2.3] (vs McDowell) (Starts 07.30)
Steve Rawlings sets out a strong case for backing Louis Oosthuizen to win the event here, and I couldn't agree more.
The desert always seems to bring out the very best in Louis, who has been hitting the ball superbly of late, without getting just reward on much slower, and less suitable greens.
The former Open champ certainly ranks higher up my shortlist than Graeme McDowell, who in contrast rarely produces his best golf in the desert.
Both men were tied for 13th in last year's renewal, but arrived on the back of rather different form. Twelve months ago, Gmac was the hottest golfer on the planet, whereas this term's form has been patchy, and much inferior by comparison.

6u Lee Westwood @ [1.63] (vs A Hansen) (Starts 08.10)
With all due respect to Anders Hansen, who has enjoyed an excellent season and often thrives in the Gulf, winning this match-up is a huge ask. For my money, Lee Westwood is the man to beat around the Earth Course, thoroughly deserving tournament favourite status, and rates the first round banker.
Lee was superb in strolling to a successful defence of his Nedbank title over the weekend, and boasts watertight course form credentials, running away with the inaugural Dubai World Championship by six shots in 2009 and finishing third last year, beaten by a single shot.

5u Martin Kaymer @ [1.95] (vs Schwartzel) (Starts 08.20)
Despite arriving with the Race to Dubai title on his mind, winning it on the second occasion, Martin Kaymer underperformed on both previous visits to the Earth Course, but such are his credentials for desert golf I'm prepared to give the German another chance.
In addition to seven top-four finishes in the two big early-season events in the United Arab Emirates, including a trio of Abu Dhabi Championship titles, Kaymer took an instant liking to the Arizona venue that hosts the World Matchplay. After winning the WGC-HSBC Champions Trophy last month with a stellar putting performance, it would be no surprise to see him finish 2012 in the same fashion that he began it, when storming to top spot in the world rankings.
Masters hero Charl Schwartzel has had a fine year, but has been rather inconsistent in recent weeks, disappointing in the World Cup and also last week on home soil. Nor do previous 53rd and 21st place finishes indicate any particular liking for the Earth Course.