Cricket tips / Ed Hawkins / 25 May 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

We don't know a huge amount about Cardiff as a Test wicket but we do know that this inexperienced Sri Lankan team will find English conditions very hard to come to terms with. Ed Hawkins believes the value lies with England.

Team news

England ummed and aahed over a replacement for Paul Collingwood until Eoin Morgan, who had caused a few confused looks when deciding to prepare for the rigours of five-day Test cricket with a thrash in the IPL, fell seven short of a double ton against the Sri Lankans in a warm-up.

Steven Finn and Chris Tremlett will go head-to-head in the nets today to decide who takes the final fast-bowling spot.

Sri Lanka in the meanwhile arrived in England having forgotten to pack any bowlers of meaningful international experience. So it is a mighty blow that Nuwan Prandeep, the seamer who bowled them to victory over the England Lions, has had to return home with a knee complaint. Allrounder Farveez Maharoof is his replacement.

Otherwise Tillakaratne Dilshan leads a green bowling line-up minus, for the first time, Muttiah Muralitharan. To compound matters, Dilhara Fernando, their most experienced bowler, has been hobbling around.

Venue and conditions

The weather forecast for Cardiff for day one is not the best. Heavy rain showers are expected before clearing nicely from day two onwards. The inevitable overreaction of the shortening of the draw price will be a money-maker for canny traders. The Cardiff wicket is a good one. It steadfastly refused to break up in its only Test so far - the Ashes contest in 2009 - although there was spin for Nathan Hauritz, who claimed six wickets.

Match odds

Stuart Law has called England the "toughest team on the planet" this week and although India might have something to say about that, there can be no doubt in this column's opinion that an inexperienced Sri Lanka side are going to get some nasty bruises.

They will struggle simply because they have too many players with too limited experience of alien English conditions. It is tried and trusted. England look stonking value at [2.06] to build on their Ashes success Down Under.

England have only once lost the opening Test of a home series since 2002 - a measure of how long it takes touring sides to get to grips with things - while Sri Lanka are likely to find life after Murali tough. In the 37 Tests played abroad that they were without their talisman, they won only once.

England batsmen

All eyes will be on Kevin Pietersen, whose England future is looking questionable. He had a mini falling out with Andy Flower at the World Cup and has since admitted that he was "not raring to go" as the season approached. That attitude may be the reason why he has struggled to make an impact for Surrey - 30 and 48 against Cambridge MCCU, and 58 (out of 506) against Essex. He might be worth laying at around [2.50] for a 50. However, KP did top score with 69 against Australia at this venue two years ago.
Alastair Cook, the Ashes hero, is [4.5] jolly for top-bat honours in the first innings but Andrew Strauss is probably a better wager at [4.6] after a hundred against the Lankans in a warm-up. Strauss is [2.1] for a 50 with Morgan [2.14].

Sri Lanka batsmen

Dilshan, Kumar Sangakkara, who has often struggled with the moving ball in England, and Mahela Jayawardene cannot be separated at [4.5] for top bat. Tharanga Paranavitana, the opener who is averaging 70 so far, is [6.4].

Best bet: Back England to win first Test @ [2.06]