Cricket tips / Ed Hawkins / 28 September 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

India and Australia meet in Mohali in the early hours of Friday in the first of two Tests. Ed Hawkins reckons the hosts are cracking value to take the series.

Team news
A two-Test series in India is hardly ideal preparation for a home Ashes series for players and punters alike, although it is likely that the Australian team which lines up in Mohali could be the same XI which begin the bid to regain the urn in Brisbane on November 25.

Australia have not made a habit of adapting to the dry and dusty spin surfaces of India. In 2008 they rejected the convention of playing two specialist spinners and instead mostly relied on the part-time turn of Simon Katich, Michael Clarke and Cameron White.

Offbreak bolwer Nathan Hauritz, who made his Test debut in India six years ago, is the main man but it would be a surprise if they paired him with leggie Steven Smith. With legends like Muralitharan and Warne averaging in the 40s in India, Smith would be seen as a sacrificial lamb by the Indian batsmen.

Smith, who played in the one warm-up game, could be replaced by Michael Hussey, who could act as a part-time bowler along with Marcus North. Peter George, the rangy quick, could make his debut at the expense of Doug Bollinger.

India have an injury doubt over spinner Harbhajan Singh (hip). But India look certain to play two spinners and if Harbhajan doesn't make it, Amit Mishra will be joined in the side by Pragyan Ojha. Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma are the probable pace pair.

Venue and conditions
There have been five draws in nine Tests on an often lifeless Mohali surface. In fact, it is difficult to describe the wicket at the Punjab CA stadium. It's not outstanding to bat on nor is it outstanding to bowl on, by Indian standards, if you are a spinner.

The average first-innings score in the six Tests played this decade is 400 but over such a short study period that figure is skewed by a whopping score of 630. The other five totals were not as impressive: 238, 312, 300, 469 and 453.

Most surprising is the success of the fast men on the ground. Seven of the top 10 wicket-takers are pacers, although Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh, by dint of playing most games, are Nos 1 and 2.

Australia were hammered on the ground by 302 runs in 2008 by the same attack which India are expected to use.

Match odds
India have lost only seven times at home since November 2000, Australia have been responsible for three of them. The problem with those three is that Warne and McGrath played in them, a fine example of historical form being irrelevant.

There is not a great deal of faith in this Australia bowling attack - Mitchell Johnson averaged more than 40 in the previous series - doing enough to put India's excellent batting line-up under pressure while Simon Katich and Shane Watson, centurions both in a warm-up, have the ability to do likewise to the Indian bowlers.

So we should expect the draw price to dip quickly in the first session after the ball has lost its lustre, after about 10 overs. Currently it is set at [21.6] and it would be a surprise if it isn't odds on at lunch. Australia are [3.7] and India [3.55].

Top batsman
Gautam Gambhir, [5.0], has an extraordinary record at Mohali, hitting two centuries in three matches to give him an average of 104. Rahul Dravid, [5.1], 645 runs at 58, and [4.50] chance Sachin Tendulkar, 473 at 47, are the top two runscorers but have played more than twice the amount of games.

One of those centuries from Gambhir came against Australia and with the gutsy left-hander averaging 58 against them, he is worth following for top bat.

For Australia, Mike Hussey, [6.2], and Katich, [5.0], performed best in the previous series, averaging 56 and 49 respectively. Ricky Ponting, [4.6], is one to avoid. He averages only 21.8 in India.

Featured market
India are the No 1 side in the world and it is a surprise to see them as big as [2.70] to win the series. They have lost only two series of their last 13 at home and their spin threat should undermine Australia's bid. Ponting's side are [3.20] and the draw [2.80].

Ed Hawkins says: Back India to win series at [2.70]