Cricket tips / Ed Hawkins / 21 September 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Abdul Razzaq's return resulted in Pakistan's second win of a long tour - can he deliver victory no.3? Ed Hawkins previews the fourth ODI.

Team news
Ian Bell, who scored a sublime century under pressure to guide Warwickshire to CB40 glory over Somerset on Saturday, has been added to England's squad for the last two one-day internationals.

Bell could well come in to replace Ravi Bopara, who is not having his finest series. Otherwise, England should be unchanged.

Pakistan, finally, found a place for Abdul Razzaq and the fact his return to the side coincide with only their second win of the tour may be no coincidence. Expect Pakistan to stick with the same XI which beat England at The Oval on Friday.

Sadly, that game has been tarnished with allegations of spot-fixing. It remains to be seen what comes from a report in The Sun that Pakistan might have manipulated scoring rates but there is a certain amount of scepticism from this correspondent.

There is no doubt that cricket has remained in the grip of corruption since the Hansie Cronje affair but it beggars belief that savvy cartels and illegal Indian bookies would attempt to fix elements of games when the spotlight is burning so brightly.

The people who run these operations are not fools and have no financial need to take such a risk, a gamble fittingly, by ordering fixes. Cricket will still be being played in six months when the heat will have been reduced.

ICC chief Haroon Lorgat was quoted as saying that scoring patterns were "broadly" in line with information uncovered by the newspaper's investigation. That cuts no mustard. It has to be, excuse the pun, spot on.

No bookmaker, in India or the UK, pays out on a bet which is "broadly" correct. You win or lose, as simple as that. It is this lack of basic betting nous which damns the ICC in its attempts to rid the game of the scourge.


Venue and conditions
The average first-innings score in the nine matches at Lord's this decade is 225 and the highest first dig score during that period is Australia's 277 last year. On the strength of those statistics it is reasonable to assume that we are unlikely to see a high-scoring game.

There is no toss bias, although this is the first ODI to be played under lights at the ground. England have a poor record at HQ, winning only three from nine attempts.


Match odds
England looked a little jaded at The Oval while Pakistan seemed to have found a spring in their step from somewhere. The match odds market is not convinced, though. England are as short as [1.46] while Pakistan are [3.10].

It would be fair to assume that the status quo of the tour is the most important thing to bear in mind and if England are available at something approaching [1.75] in-running during the game, they could be worth a wager.


Top batsman
With 356 runs in 13 matches, Paul Collingwood is England's second highest run-scorer in ODIs at Lord's in the last decade. Marcus Trescothick is top. Collingwood's average is not too bad at a mark of 35.60.

Andrew Strauss, so dangerous at the venue in Tests, averages just 27 over the study period. Bell, back in the fold, has a mark of 26. Mohammad Yousuf remains Pakistan's danger man. He averages a hugely impressive 58.