Betting tips / Matthew Walton / 06 December 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Matthew Walton argues that Vincent Kompany and Mario Balotelli will be key players if City are to beat Bayern Munich in the Champions League.

In the last 10 years of the Champions League, no less than 38 times have Premier League clubs competed in the group stages.

And of those, 35 have qualified for the next phase.

That's a 92% success rate.

Better than any other nation in Europe (by some margin).

During the last decade only Liverpool (2002/03 & 2009/10) and Manchester United (2005/06) have fallen at the first hurdle.

Arsenal (10), Manchester United (9), Chelsea (8), Liverpool (6) lead the way in terms of qualification...with Newcastle (2002/03) and European 'novices' Spurs (2010/11) also making the R16.

However...despite all this success, it hasn't always been plain sailing for English clubs. They may well have qualified many, many times for the knockout stages but, as we'll see, there have been a few close calls along the way.

And this is a topical debate given not just Manchester City, but rivals Manchester United and Chelsea could all go out of the competition this week. As a result, we'll have to wait and see how many of them join Arsenal (the only English side definitely through to the R16) in the latter stages of the tournament.

Studying the records, every year there has been at least one English side in need of a 'matchday six miracle'.

Some, admittedly, bigger than others.

For example, last season, Arsenal.

In their last game in Group H, if Braga bettered the Gunners' result then Arsene Wenger's men were out. Luckily the Portuguese side were away to table-toppers Shakhtar Donetsk and Arsenal were at home to the group's whipping boys, Partisan. Arsenal won 3-1, Braga lost 0-2.

But it could have been different.

Now that, you might say, didn't require divine intervention for the English side to progress. And it didn't. Their fate was well and truly in their own hands. Arsenal were odds-on, at home, against a poor team.

Contrast that, say, with Liverpool in 2007/08. They had to go to Marseille on the final matchday knowing that only a win would guarantee their progression. And, please note, Marseille had won 1-0 at Anfield earlier in the group.

Liverpool went to the South of France, won 4-0 and duly made the R16.

Now this was a much tougher assignment for the Reds but again, like Arsenal, it was a scenario where a win would be enough. Liverpool controlled their destiny.

And this is the case for both Manchester United and Chelsea this coming week... a draw will do for United in Basel.

Same goes for Chelsea at home to Valencia.

No surprises then to see them priced accordingly as Manchester United are [1.17] to qualify from Group C, Chelsea [1.53] in Group E...and we should remember that the reverse legs of both these ties ended all-square.

Trouble for Manchester City is that in Group A they have lost the right to decide their own future.

City's loss in Italy two weeks ago means that only a win against Bayern Munich will suffice AND only if Napoli also fail to win at Villareal.

And given that the Spaniards are P5 L5 so far in this section, the quotes 'to qualify' for Manchester City [3.55] as opposed to Napoli's [1.37], are fully understandable.

In fact, looking through the formbooks this is only the second time since 2001/02 that an English team has needed (a) to win and (b) other results to go for them in order to qualify.

And what happened then?

Newcastle United won 3-2 away to Feyenoord whilst Juventus won 2-1 away to Dynamo Kiev...the Geordies winning their last three group games to qualify!

Such miracles do happen, therefore, and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that City beat group leaders Bayern Munich on Wednesday and Napoli fail to beat Villareal.

Put it this way, suppose (for a moment) that City do beat 'already qualified, certain to top the group and nothing to play for' Bayern... would you say that Napoli are value at [1.37] to win in Spain?

No, neither would I.

History says City might not be done for just yet.

One thing's for sure... after the usual predictability of the group stages, we should see some drama this week!

Key Statistic

All four English teams have qualified for the R16 in four of the last five years... only Liverpool in 2009/10 failing to qualify for the knockout stages.

Recommended Bets

Lay Napoli 'to qualify' at [1.37]

Back Chelsea 'to qualify' at [1.53].