Betting tips / The Betfair Contrarian / 18 May 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The Contrarian is pouncing on the healthy odds on Chelsea being crowned champions of Europe via the Champions League Final , and here's why...

BETFAIR MATCH ODDS
Bayern (1.46) Chelsea (3.10)

Forget home advantage, forget Robbery, forget Mario Gomez succeeding Ruud van Nistelrooy as Europe's most effortlessly effective goal-getter and forget the suspensions.

All you need to recall before betting on this year's Champions League final is Chelsea's recent big-match record and what they did in Barcelona.

Chelsea's run to the final was more impressive

In the autumn, as Bayern Munich strolled through the toughest group with the sort of efficiency cliché demands, and Andre Villas-Boas struggled to steer Chelsea through a simpler one from the crouch position, Bayern looked far more likely winners. Yet since the knockout stage started, the Blues have been the star turns; five European outings under Roberto Di Matteo have produced five wins, a draw and a 10-4 goal supremacy. Bayern by contrast lost to FC Basel, lucked out in drawing Marseille (perhaps in worse form than any other side in Champions League quarter-final history) and saw off their Spanish superheavyweight opponents only thanks to Sergio Ramos sending a penalty into orbit.

They beat the mighty Barcelona

By contrast, Chelsea scored twice away to the holders with a man disadvantage, when one goal would have sufficed. Not only did their performance with ten men at the Camp Nou demonstrate an ability in adversity that may render their defensive problems and Bayern Munich's home advantage irrelevant, it is a mighty fine omen. The last two clubs to have navigated a route past Lionel Messi and his tiki-takatastic team-mates have gone on to yoink the trophy. The duo contesting this final were unfortunate enough to personally experience the effect that a victory over Catalan royalty has on a side's swagger, Chelsea losing to Manchester United in the 2008 final and Bayern falling to Inter two years later.

You've got your Germany stereotypes all wrong

Sure, at international level banal instructions like "never write off the Germans" and "remember they are most dangerous when written off" and "don't forget they are England's bogey team" are to be sagely savoured, but never apply them to a European club final. The last five such England versus Germany showdowns have ended in Anglo exuberance, including four in a row in the Champions League and Chelsea's most recent continental triumph against Stuttgart in the 1998 Cup Winners Cup, in which Roberto Di Matteo was a starter. The Blues also prevailed on the previous occasion that they met Bayern Munich - 6-5 on aggregate in the 2004-05 Champions League quarter-finals.

All the pressure is on Bayern

Di Matteo's interim appointment in March was not portrayed as a strategic manoeuvre designed to enhance silverware-lifting potential, but a desperate attempt to extinguish the mutinous spirit of the Villas-Boas regime, so the success enjoyed since has been a remarkable bonus. For Bayern however, their whole campaign has built towards this game, with failure inexcusable. The desperation has been heightened by domestic disappointment and the fact that their Bundesliga and German Cup challenges were both halted by Borussia Dortmund, the most genuine threat to their standing as Germany's elite team in years. Jurgen Klopp's men thrashed them 5-2 on Saturday to wound Bayern's morale ahead of this season-defining test.

A caretaker has won the top prize before

Nobody typifies the unusually carefree attitude of this incarnation of Chelsea more than the boss, who having never expected to assume this position after being axed by West Brom last February has absolutely nothing to lose, and is thriving on that freedom. He wouldn't be the first caretaker manager to win the competition, as Tony Barton achieved the feat with Aston Villa 30 years ago.