Betting tips / Gary Crispe / 11 February 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Timeform's Gary Crispe assesses how Black Caviar is likely to fare when stepping up in trip in the CF Orr Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday.

It is not often in any race preview that the result is a foregone conclusion but when unbeaten champion sprinting mare Black Caviar (Timeform rated 135) lines up on the track, that is the inevitable scenario.

Black Caviar tackles 1400m for the first time in the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes under weight-for-age conditions at Caulfield, but the new distance will be the only thing different from her previous wins that have all been at either 1000m or 1200m.

Admittedly there is always a slight element of doubt when horses go to a new distance for the first time, but I have no doubt, and nor does race rider Luke Nolen, that the mighty mare will have little difficulty with the additional 200m. In fact, like myself , many others have been waiting for her to showcase her enormous stride at distances further than 1200m, a distance at which she has won 13 of her 17 race starts.

Saturday's race, on face value at least, is stronger than the field she easily dispensed with in the Group 2 Australia Stakes over 1200m at Moonee Valley 15 days ago, but the majority are better suited by longer distances.

Amongst those opposed to her are 2007 Group 1 Melbourne Cup winner Efficient, dual Group 1 Kingston Town Classic winner Playing God and 2011 Group 1 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed.

Those gallopers are all on paths to staying goals this Autumn but Southern Speed showed she had come back to racing this campaign in better form than ever, sprinting well enough to win fresh-up over the course and distance in the Listed John Dillon Stakes a fortnight ago. Southern Speed (Timeform rated 118) is well below Black Caviar on ratings but she does loom as the one most likely to fill the placings and maybe even cause the great mare to raise a sweat.

That said, the Orr Stakes also has a history of being won by stayers resuming from Spring spells. Some notable past middle distance winners include Maldivian (2009), El Segundo (2007), Elvstroem (2005), Grand Archway (1999), Saintly (1997), Juene (1005), Durbridge (1993) and Let's Elope (1992).

It is significant to note that three previous Melbourne Cup winners have won the Orr Stakes when resuming in the last 20 years.

The only two horses capable of sprinting well at this distance are stablemate Doubtful Jack and speedster Danzylum. But both are not in this class, although the former has been placed twice previously behind his stablemate and will race in the lead or handy to it. As a point of interest, both these gallopers also contested the 2011 Orr Stakes renewal running fifth and fourth respectively around three lengths behind Typhoon Tracy.

They face a far more formidable opponent today.

However, more importantly both will again contribute to the race this afternoon in terms of race tempo. The speed map has Black Caviar sitting third behind the pair and launching her winning run when race rider Nolen decides to release the brakes.

I expect Playing God to be finishing the race off hard in the closing stages although he has shown his best form at larger, roomier tracks and that could be a factor against him today.

And that is about the race as Black Caviar searches for win number 18 to equal Ajax as the longest winning sequence in history on a major Australian racetrack.

There has been much conjecture as to what size winning margin Black Caviar might have to win by in order to raise her Timeform rating above 135. One situation under which that may happen is a theoretical scenario where the horses that finish around her are deemed to run to their best. For example, Black Caviar on Timeform ratings adjusted for weight carried is rated 149, Playing God 133 and Southern Speed 132. Should the race finish in that order with those horses running to their respective peak levels and the race being run at the average race time of 1:23.14, a winning margin in excess of 16 pounds or roughly five and a quarter lengths may prompt a re-assessment of Black Caviar's rating.

While it may be a long shot, it is not out entirely of the question as the five-year winning Timeform rating for the Orr Stakes is 122 and that sits perfectly with master ratings for both Southern Speed and Playing God.

Trainer Peter Moody believes Black Caviar must show him she has the ability to run out a strong 1400m as a pre-cursor to her running at Royal Ascot in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes up the testing 1200m straight course. If all goes to plan Black Caviar will have two attempts at 1400m before arriving in the UK, Saturday's race and the Group 1 Futurity Stakes, also at Caulfield, in a fortnight.

So sit back and enjoy Black Caviar claim a record equalling 18th straight win, which will be one of the champion mares' last Australian runs prior to showcasing her greatness on the world stage later this year.

No Recommendation: Black Caviar will be at prohibitive odds