Betting tips / Dave Farrar / 07 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Even the least interesting rounds of football can provide some good betting opportunities, and with this in mind David Farrar wants to point you at Serie A matches involving Roma and Udinese.

Roma v Chievo

It's a shame that Serie A returns from its winter break with something of a whimper.

There's a pretty unglamorous fixture list this weekend, and not too many betting opportunities to keep us interested. There will be far more fascinating matchdays to come as the title race develops into something pretty special, but for now we have to make do with a few scraps, and I'd be lying if I said that this was a weekend in which I was going to be heavily involved financially.

Chievo produced what was arguably their performance of the season at the end of December, coming to the Olimpico and holding Lazio to a 0-0 draw. They were the better side on that occasion, and despite having one of the worst attacks in the division, they'll feel that they can get something from a Roma team that found some form before the winter break, but which can frustratingly flatter to deceive.

The Chievo coach Mimmo Di Carlo was hoping to add the giant Andrea Caracciolo to his squad in the hope that he might give them a goal threat, but he has gone to Novara, and so I don't expect Di Carlo to show too much ambition in Rome, and I think that he'd be content with another stalemate. Chievo will be boosted by the fact that Pablo Osvaldo is missing for Roma, and a likely frontline of Erik Lamela and Bojan may struggle to find a way through. Osvaldo is becoming increasingly key for Roma, and his form so far this season may even lead to a move to the Premier League in England. He was, after all, a transfer target for Tottenham during his days at Espanyol, even getting the tabloid treatment.

A low-scoring home win is the likeliest outcome, and Roma are priced at [1.71] for the victory, with the 1-0 win available at [6.4] and the 0-0 draw tempting at [11.0]. I was hoping to see under 2.5 goals trading at odds against, but the market seems to have it about right at [1.84]. Chievo have only scored one goal in their last six matches against Roma here, and yet have always managed to keep things relatively tight, not conceding more than once in their last nine visits to the Olimpico against Roma and Lazio.

Despite Roma's slow tempo and occasional sluggishness they have managed early goals in their last three Serie A games, and if they do so again, I would advise trading the under 1.5 and 2.5 goals market. There is no guarantee that they will score again. Tempted though I am by the 0-0 draw here, the advice is that Roma will find a way through, possibly early on, and then hold on for a win.

Recommendation Back Roma to beat Chievo 1-0 @ [6.4]

Udinese v Cesena

It's a similar story at the Friuli, with Udinese adept at wrapping games up before half-time, and then allowing the best defence in Serie A to strangle teams after the break. The truth is that Udinese can be one of the most stultifying teams in Italy, and much though I admire their story, and the coaching job that Francesco Guidolin has done, this team is quite a long way from the one in which Alexis Sanchez dazzled last season.

Cesena looked dead and buried in November, but three wins before Christmas gave them a little bit of hope, and they head into the second half of the season just three points adrift of safety. Their fighting spirit will serve them well, and they may be able to engineer another improbable survival, but I don't think that it will start here.

I expect Udinese to stroll to a bloodless victory, and am surprised to see them available to back at [1.5] in the Match Odds market. That seems a little big to me, although I'm not in the habit of putting up 1/2 shots in this column and so will aim for another small investment in the Correct Score market, on Udinese to win 2-0, a scoreline which they have produced on five occasions this season. Remember that Udinese have conceded only twice at home all season, and given that they are by far the likelier winners here, they're the kind of team which can regularly reward Correct Score punters.

Recommendation Udinese to beat Cesena 2-0 @ [6.8]