Betting tips / Editor / 15 September 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Harry The Hat returns to B.B for the third leg of the four-pronged FedEx Cup series with an in-depth look at Cog Hill - a long course with an easy stretch of holes where good scoring will be key.

For the first two playoff events in the FedEx Cup I've focused on stretches of holes where players can make rapid moves up the leader board and in-play punters can take advantage of big changes in price.

The BMW Championship at Cog Hill Golf & Country Club features such a stretch. The key scoring holes are number 8, 9, 10 and 11 which contain two short par-fours and two long par-fives. All four holes usually play under par and they are four of the easiest five holes on the course.

Last year Dustin Johnson won with a score of nine-under-par and he played the key stretch in nine-under for the week! Even Paul Casey, who finished second at eight-under-par, played the key stretch in seven under. Watch out for players making big moves on this stretch of holes.

Rarely do players go an entire round without a bogey and something to keep an eye out for this week is 'good bogeys'. It may seem strange but not every bogey is bad news for the players.

The long 509-yard par-four fifth is a good example. It is the second most difficult hole on the course and last year it played 0.3 over par so on average players will make at least one bogey on this hole over the four days of the tournament.

If a player bogeys the fifth they will they will not lose much ground on the rest of the field and hence it can be considered a 'good bogey'.

Good bogeys are important because the market can often over react allowing punters to find extra value during the tournament. In the final round last year Johnson bogeyed the fifth hole to fall out of the lead but still went onto win and in 2009 Tiger Woods bogeyed the fifth in his first and last rounds. Be prepared to back players after they make a 'good bogey.'

The reason I keep focusing on the last two years in because the course underwent a redevelopment in 2008. Cog Hill used to be one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour but it is now the tenth most difficult.

Courses often suit a certain type of player and by comparing past winners' statistics it helps us to identify the key skills a player needs in order to win on a particular type of course.

While two years does not give us a lot of data to go on the last two winners both ranked in the top 10 for total driving (combination of distance and accuracy from the tee). The course is 7,616 yards long and, with tree-lined fairways, deep bunkers and thick rough, players need to be both long and accurate to win at Cog Hill.

The putter is always the great leveller and more often than not a player wins because his putter 'gets hot'. Neither Johnson or Woods missed from inside five feet and both were in the top four for putting from 5-10 feet.

So when looking to back players after the first round and especially before the final round make sure you take a close look at the key stats and back players who are leading in these categories even if they are a few shots of the lead.