Betting tips / Soccer Widow / 31 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

After crashing out of the FA Cup, Manchester United might be expected to win when they host Stoke, but the Soccer Widow has looked at the black-letter stats and found some value bets you might not have thought of.

It is not often that a team has played more games at this stage of a season than Manchester United, but with its UEFA Europa League involvement beginning way back on July 28, Stoke City has already clocked-up a tally of 37 results in all competitions, compared to United's 34.

When the 'Red Devils' take on 'The Potters', many would expect a recurrence of the result of recent years -- a home win. Following the bitter taste of late defeat against Liverpool in Saturday's FA Cup match, United will once again be 'the wounded animal', which never bodes well for any opposing team, especially visitors to Old Trafford. It appears that with the appearance of the inconsistent David de Gea against Liverpool, Anders Lindegaard was being rested for the more important league game against Stoke. Other players rested on Saturday included Wayne Rooney and Luis Nani, who should both return from the minor knocks they received a week ago at Arsenal.

It was interesting to hear Sir Alex Ferguson saying this week that Danny Welbeck should be in England's squad for the European Championships this summer. Essentially, Sir Alex is publicly encouraging Welbeck to play consistently well enough for United with the reward being a possible call-up into Fabio Capello's squad. The other side of the bargain he is alluding to, of course, is Welbeck's new United contract and wage demands, which are apparently at an impasse between the player, his agent and the club. Sir Alex has always had a loathing of agents and fears Welbeck is not being well-advised: "Go out and prove you are worth it" is what Ferguson is effectively saying here.

We shall see how this sub-plot unfolds as United's season develops further...

How do the statistics stand up?

Head-To-Head (Manchester United Home, Stoke City Away)
•Prior to this season's 1-1 draw at the Britannia Stadium, United had beaten Stoke home and away in each of the previous three seasons, scoring 16 and conceding just twice

•This draw on September 24, was the first point Stoke had gained against United since season 1984-85, and stemmed a run of seven consecutive defeats at the hands of the Red Devils, with just two goals scored and 21 conceded

•United has played Stoke 34 times at home in league history, winning 19 (56%), drawing 11 (32%) and losing on just four occasions (12%), and with 69 United goals scored (2.03 per match) and 25 for Stoke (0.74 per game)

•United is averaging exactly three goals scored and 1.27 conceded per league game at home this season, while Stoke's average per league game away from home is 0.73 goals scored and 1.82 conceded

•Of just seven Premier League games played between the two clubs, two were under 2.5 goals (29%), and five had over 2.5 goals (71%)

•In these seven games, United 'won to nil' on four occasions (57%), although Stoke has scored in each of the last three matches

Analysis of Manchester United's last 15 home games in all competitions during 2011-2012 season:
•Nine wins (60%), three draws (20%), three defeats (20%); Last six (most recent first): W-L-W-W-L-D)

•Old Trafford has played host this season to every club in the current Premier League top-ten except Stoke and Liverpool (United has so far won five, drawn one and lost one, scoring 19 and conceding 10)

•Goals per game average from last 15 home matches is 4.13, comprising four matches under 2.5 goals (27%), and 11 over 2.5 goals (73%)

•Both teams have scored in nine matches (60%)

•Nine of 15 games finished with less than 4.5 goals (60%)

•Goal numbers in the last six home matches (most recent first): 3-5-5-5-3-2
Analysis of Stoke City's last 15 away games in all competitions during 2011-12 season:

•Six defeats (40%), two draws (13%), seven wins (47%); Last six (most recent first): W-D-W-W-L-D)

•All four Premier League away wins have come against current bottom-seven clubs

•Goals per game average from last 15 away matches is 2.73, comprising six matches under 2.5 goals (40%), and nine over 2.5 goals (60%)

•Both teams have scored in seven matches (46.7%)

•Fourteen of 15 matches finished with less than 4.5 goals (93.3%)

•Total goal numbers in the last six away matches (most recent first): 2-0-4-3-3-3

Summary
According to the statistics and the current odds available in the market, there is plenty of value on offer for this match and just a few of the opportunities are summarised below.

As ever, good luck!


Value Bets:

a)Lay the draw (odds [6.00]; true odds [12.00])

b)Both teams to score? = No (odds [1.82]; true odds [1.76])

c)Manchester United (Half Time) (odds [1.67]; true odds [1.40])

d)Over 2.5 goals (odds [1.67]; true odds [1.13])