Betting tips / Chris Ryan / 11 June 2009 / 1 Comments Bet Now

One of the key questions for punters when betting on a whole range of sports is whether to take the head to head (H2H or match odds) price or the line (also referred to as handicap). There are many different viewpoints on this subject, and they differ across a variety of sports, and as a punter it's important that we know the subtle differences to help keep us ahead of the game, writes Chris Ryan.

In general I have a preference for taking the H2H price as in general we are betting into a much tighter market, even if this is only giving us a 0.5% edge. I feel this is of particular importance in close contests across any sport, so that rather than take a small (+1.5) or (-0.5) I'd much rather take the team outright as the overriding factor for a sportsmen/team is to win a game, the margin is often (and should be!) irrespective to them. There can be differences however in lopsided matches, were one team may be $1.05 for instance and the opposition $15. We consider the hot pot to be near unbeatable, but not much point in backing at the short quote, and the outsider highly unlikely to win, and the $15 doesn't interest us. However if we have a line of +30.5 for example (regardless of the sport) we may have a desire to take the outsider to not get blown away, and thus take the big plus.

One of my favourite bets is to take the big outsider at the plus in a NRL, AFL or Union match in which wet weather is a factor. There's 2 reasons for this, one the weather diminishes the skill advantage the favourite has over the opposition because of ball control problems, and secondly a game played in the wet is likely to be lower scoring, thus increasing the probability the outsider can get somewhat close to their opponents score.

We'll cover off the differences in the major sports as far as betting at the line.

Rugby League

Two important factors to consider: 1) Winning margins are most commonly even numbers (as field goals are rare) so +4.5 is significantly better than +3.5, as there is a far greater probability than the winning margin would be 4 points, as opposed to 3. 2) Teams play to win by particular margins, ie teams will try and get 6, 7 or 8 points in front through a penalty goal or field goal to have a buffer of at least a converted try. Thus +6.5 is far more important than +5.5 (the reverse true obviously if you are taking the minus).

AFL/Rugby Union

No significant factors because of odd/even scoring system.

Soccer

One of the few sports where a team can and sometimes WILL play for a draw. If this is the case and a draw helps your team, the +0.5 ball can be an option. Conversely if it is a must win match, it is not such a good option.

Baseball/Ice Hockey/Basketball

Can only score 1 at a time, no significant line factors in Baseball and Ice Hockey. Odd/even scoring methods in Basketball also mean there is no significant factors, though 'point shaving' has been an issue at times in America, particularly in college sports.

NFL

Slightly higher propensity for winning margins to be in multiples of 7, so as per Rugby League there is a difference between 6.5 and 7.5, and 13.5 and 14.5 for instance.