Betting tips / Editor / 23 July 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Graham Cunningham's Saturday view: Can Workforce lay the ghost of an odds on flop in this race last year?

Three of the best older horses in Europe and a rapidly improving three-year-old square off for the Betfair King George on Saturday. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham was happy to oppose Workforce in 2010 but is confident last year's Derby and Arc hero can make amends this time around.

Workforce the safe King George option.... but the value has long gone

One of the most frustrating questions any punter faces relates to what to do when you fancy a horse only for the price to collapse before you step in. That question has reared its head again over this year's King George.

I suspect Workforce will be too good for St Nicholas Abbey, Rewilding and Nathaniel this Saturday. But whether I want to back him at 2.52 when 4-1 was available this time last week is another matter altogether.

The thing that makes this year's King George so compelling is that each of the big four has a significant question to answer. With Workforce, it's a question of whether he can lay the ghost of an odds on flop in this race last year.

With St Nicholas Abbey it's a question of whether he can take another step forward after wearing down Midday for a gritty success in the Coronation Cup.

With Nathaniel it's a simple question of whether he is good enough after powering clear in far less demanding company here last month.

And with Rewilding it's a question of whether he can peak for a second time in under four weeks having worn down So You Think in a Prince of Wales's Stakes in which tactics suited him far better than the runner-up.

I suspect the answers to the four questions will be yes, possibly, no and probably not.

Timeform feel that even St Nick's best form gives him 5lb to find with Workforce; Nathaniel has even more find if Workforce peaks, while Rewilding found the cards falling perfectly in a messy Prince of Wales's.

Granted, Rewilding beat So You Think by a neck that day whereas Workforce finished half-a-length behind him in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown three weeks ago. But using collateral form could be dangerous in this case. To my mind, we saw the real So You Think at Sandown and Workforce emerged from a sustained duel battling on bravely with his reputation firmly intact.

I don't think the so-called Ascot factor will come into play as Workforce seems to have settled down since being too fiery early on in this race last year. His best here ought to be good enough, but 3.0 is the price I have in mind. If he touches that I'll back him. And if he doesn't then I'll be very happy to watch.

Take two against Twice Over in York's Saturday showpiece

Good luck if you are playing the rest of the Ascot card, but having worked through the bulk of it I came away without much inspiration.

It would be easy enough to opt for Russelliana at a short price in the Princess Margaret Stakes at 14:40, but Sir Michael Stoute's Cherry Hinton runner-up is a short price up against two who could be equally smart in Regal Realm and Angels Will Fall.

And it would be easy enough to throw a dart at the Betfair Summer Double Handicap at 15:50 while fully aware that this is a fiendishly open contest in which the effects of the draw and track position are extremely tough to assess beforehand.

With all that in mind it makes sense to head to York in favour of more attractive bets this weekend and Class is Class, Dominant, Corporal Maddox and Kool Henry could prove worth noting ahead of another hectic day on the Knavesmire.

Twice Over is the clear pick of the weights for the Skybet Stakes at 15:05 based on his very best form, but do you really want to take 3.0 about a horse who has run one dull race and one downright poor one on his last two starts?

I certainly don't, so it's a case of splitting stakes at best odds available between Dominant and Class Is Class in opposition to the jolly.

Dominant lines up as the potential big improver in the field after making some smart rivals look second rate under similar conditions in a valuable Sales race at Newmarket, while Class Is Class is more exposed but heads north in the form of his life after powering clear of Tazeez in a Sandown Listed race.

Class is Class might represent slightly better value at 6.0 or bigger, but Dominant looked very good at HQ and it would come as no surprise to take this further step up in class in his powerful stride.

Kool Henry and Corporal Maddox are both nominated as potential each way value options in the 14:00 and the 15:40 respectively.

Kool Henry is a speedy and progressive youngster whose freewheeling style ought to be seen to good effect in the opener.

A 2lb pull for a close second behind Last Bid here recently gives him fair prospects of reversing the form, while Corporal Maddox shaped as if he might be ready to capitalise on a vastly reduced mark at Chester last time and appeals as the sort who could be underestimated in the market for a wide open 15:40.

Saturday Recommended Bets
York 14:00: Back Kool Henry win and place
York 15:05: Back Class Is Class and Dominant
York 15:40: Back Corporal Maddox win and place